Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Capitalism

Only 6 developers shipped a Capitalist Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, MindsEye, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×6.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $140k against a market of $1.5k. 20 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 92.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 20 announced, ×6.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $139k (exactly $138,694)
Top 25% $424k (exactly $423,580)
Top 5% $3.0M (exactly $2,996,894)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 27
Announced 20
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $24.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 30%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter
Price point
$24.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 914,951 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $140k, 1 in 4 over $420k, 1 in 20 over $2.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 20 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HELLDIVERS™ 2 older $39.99 838,901 76% 25M $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) Arrowhead Game Studios
HITMAN World of Assassination older $29.99 58,655 87% 1.8M $53M (exactly $52,771,904) IO Interactive A/S
Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League older $69.99 12,718 60% 382k $27M (exactly $26,703,985) Rocksteady Studios
MindsEye $34.99 2,855 48% 86k $3.0M (exactly $2,996,894) Build A Rocket Boy
BLACKWOOD $24.99 565 46% 17k $424k (exactly $423,580) AttritoM7 Productions
Bot Wars · EA older $14.99 700 86% 21k $315k (exactly $314,790) Frompy Games
Pizza Bandit · EA $24.99 185 82% 5.6k $139k (exactly $138,694) JOFSOFT
Jesus Christ Simulator · EA older $1.99 184 88% 5.5k $11k (exactly $10,985) Luke Gayson
TYRONE SOULZ older $1.95 178 86% 5.3k $10k (exactly $10,413) Team SNEED
惑星游侠-Planet Rogue older $16.99 10 80% 300 $5.1k (exactly $5,097) 赛里斯南方游戏工作室 [Sinae South Game Studio]
中国式富豪 $6.99 4 25% 120 $839 (exactly $839) 大米粥工作室
Emotional Combat: Ratio V Motus · EA $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) VX Core Studios
Pigslaughter · EA $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Crazy Core

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.