Games › Third-Person Shooter › Third-Person Shooter + Noir
Should I ship a Noir Third-Person Shooter?
Third-Person Shooter + Noir
Only 9 developers shipped a Noir Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Cyberpunk SFX, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×7.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.
Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $6.7k against a market of $1.5k. 30 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.7k (exactly $6,732) |
| Top 25% | $14k (exactly $14,086) |
| Top 5% | $55k (exactly $54,845) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 9 |
| Released games | 37 |
| Announced | 30 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $7.00 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Third-Person Shooter
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Noir
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- Third-Person Shooter
- Price point
- $7.00 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 238,034 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Third-Person Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RhythmStrong odds
- + WesternFair
- + CollectathonLong shot
- + Time ManagementLong shot
- + Walking SimulatorLong shot
- + Class-BasedPoor odds
- + Creature CollectorPoor odds
- + DinosaursPoor odds
- + MechsPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + Level EditorPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
Comparable games
Mafia: Definitive Edition 2020 · $107M 
Max Payne 3 2012 · $33M 
Mafia II: Definitive Edition 2020 · $26M 
L.A. Noire 2011 · $19M 
Max Payne 2011 · $3.8M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Mafia: Definitive Edition | older | $39.99 | 88,955 86% | 2.7M | $107M (exactly $106,719,314) | Hangar 13 |
| | Max Payne 3 | older | $19.99 | 55,150 86% | 1.7M | $33M (exactly $33,073,455) | Rockstar Studios |
| | Mafia II: Definitive Edition | older | $29.99 | 28,886 74% | 867k | $26M (exactly $25,988,734) | Hangar 13, D3T |
| | L.A. Noire | older | $19.99 | 31,099 85% | 933k | $19M (exactly $18,650,070) | Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds |
| | Max Payne | older | $9.99 | 12,773 88% | 383k | $3.8M (exactly $3,828,068) | Remedy Entertainment |
 | Max Payne 2: The Fall of Max Payne | older | $9.99 | 12,102 93% | 363k | $3.6M (exactly $3,626,969) | Remedy Entertainment |
 | The Bureau: XCOM Declassified | older | $19.99 | 4,857 67% | 146k | $2.9M (exactly $2,912,743) | 2K Marin |
 | The Saboteur™ | older | $9.99 | 2,790 91% | 84k | $836k (exactly $836,163) | Pandemic Studios |
 | LIBERATED | older | $19.99 | 679 77% | 20k | $407k (exactly $407,196) | Atomic Wolf, L.INC |
 | DARK | older | $9.99 | 743 54% | 22k | $223k (exactly $222,677) | Realmforge Studios |
 | Cyberpunk SFX | $9.99 | 183 83% | 5.5k | $55k (exactly $54,845) | Whale Rock Games | |
 | Outbreak: Shades of Horror Chromatic Split | $24.99 | 24 50% | 720 | $18k (exactly $17,993) | Dead Drop Studios LLC | |
 | TOUHOU RHAPSODY OF MOON RABBIT | · EA | $9.99 | 47 82% | 1.4k | $14k (exactly $14,086) | 瓦尔基里游戏 |
 | Apartment Story | $7.00 | 55 94% | 1.7k | $12k (exactly $11,550) | Blue Rider Interactive | |
 | DEN PAIN | $2.04 | 110 88% | 3.3k | $6.7k (exactly $6,732) | TXC | |
 | X-teroids | $0.99 | 23 100% | 690 | $683 (exactly $683) | liangxiegame | |
 | The High Tower | $5.99 | 3 66% | 90 | $539 (exactly $539) | ZHANG FAN | |
 | Murder&Spies | $1.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $60 (exactly $60) | navlikesbunnies | |
 | 逃离感化院 The Reformatory | $9.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Pan |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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