Do I ship it?

Games › Third-Person Shooter › Third-Person Shooter + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Dark Fantasy

Of 39 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 83 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $130. 83 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper, while revenue is down 60% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 83 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $832 → $839 → $657 → $4.7k → $719 → $358 → $1.6k (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $126 (exactly $126)
Median $358 (exactly $358)
Top 25% $4.7k (exactly $4,676)
Top 5% $451k (exactly $450,570)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 92
Announced 83
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 57% positive over 18,739 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $130, median $360, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $450k.

3 in 10 developers made under $130. 8 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 83 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Remnant: From the Ashes 2019 · $57M Mistfall Hunter 2026 · $12M ELEX 2017 · $11M Hatred 2015 · $4.6M Gungrave G.O.R.E 2022 · $669k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Remnant: From the Ashes older $39.99 47,193 84% 1.4M $57M (exactly $56,617,442) Gunfire Games
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
ELEX older $29.99 12,443 72% 373k $11M (exactly $11,194,967) Piranha Bytes
Hatred older $5.99 25,770 84% 773k $4.6M (exactly $4,630,869) Destructive Creations
Gungrave G.O.R.E older $29.99 744 71% 22k $669k (exactly $669,377) Iggymob Co.,Ltd
Trench Tales · EA $24.99 601 69% 18k $451k (exactly $450,570) Talking Drums
Bullet Witch older $14.99 723 70% 22k $325k (exactly $325,133) Marvelous, Inc.
Warhammer 40,000: Speed Freeks $19.99 493 85% 15k $296k (exactly $295,652) Caged Element
ENTITY: THE BLACK DAY $17.99 494 79% 15k $267k (exactly $266,612) ASD Games Studio
The Bleakest Keep $9.99 719 90% 22k $215k (exactly $215,484) Cache of Bones
Ultimate Drummer $5.99 170 98% 5.1k $31k (exactly $30,549) Cool 3D World
Book Shooter $6.99 107 86% 3.2k $22k (exactly $22,438) SOS GameLab.
除邪2(CHUXIE2) $6.99 44 40% 1.3k $9.2k (exactly $9,227) LCGaming
Tales of The Nightmares™ Episode One $4.50 53 88% 1.6k $7.2k (exactly $7,155) RedDot Studios
Virus Rush + Hazard of the Ages $11.99 13 100% 390 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) STRANGER

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.