Games › Third-Person Shooter › Third-Person Shooter + Cold War
Should I ship a Cold-War Third-Person Shooter?
Third-Person Shooter + Cold War
Only 6 developers shipped a Cold-War Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×5.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.
Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $20k against a market of $1.5k. 17 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $807 (exactly $807) |
|---|---|
| Median | $20k (exactly $19,790) |
| Top 25% | $555k (exactly $554,722) |
| Top 5% | $1.7M (exactly $1,736,292) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 6 |
| Released games | 40 |
| Announced | 17 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $19.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 4930% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Third-Person Shooter
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Cold War
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- Third-Person Shooter
- Price point
- $19.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 62,659 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $810. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Third-Person Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RhythmStrong odds
- + WesternFair
- + CollectathonLong shot
- + Time ManagementLong shot
- + Walking SimulatorLong shot
- + Class-BasedPoor odds
- + Creature CollectorPoor odds
- + DinosaursPoor odds
- + MechsPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + Level EditorPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
Comparable games
METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER 2025 · $20M 
METAL GEAR SOLID V: GROUND ZEROES 2014 · $8.1M 
Sprocket 2021 · EA · $7.4M 
METAL GEAR SOLID 3: Snake Eater - Master Collection Version 2023 · $3.2M 
The Bureau: XCOM Declassified 2013 · $2.9M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER | $49.99 | 13,554 82% | 407k | $20M (exactly $20,326,934) | KONAMI | |
| | METAL GEAR SOLID V: GROUND ZEROES | older | $19.99 | 13,535 84% | 406k | $8.1M (exactly $8,116,939) | KONAMI |
| | Sprocket | · EA older | $19.99 | 12,336 92% | 370k | $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) | Hamish Dunn |
| | METAL GEAR SOLID 3: Snake Eater - Master Collection Version | older | $19.99 | 5,403 89% | 162k | $3.2M (exactly $3,240,179) | KONAMI |
| | The Bureau: XCOM Declassified | older | $19.99 | 4,857 67% | 146k | $2.9M (exactly $2,912,743) | 2K Marin |
 | Wild Assault | $14.99 | 3,861 68% | 116k | $1.7M (exactly $1,736,292) | Combat Cat Studio | |
 | Freedom Fighters | older | $14.99 | 2,574 94% | 77k | $1.2M (exactly $1,157,528) | IO Interactive A/S |
 | Military Conflict: Vietnam | · EA older | $14.99 | 2,035 91% | 61k | $915k (exactly $915,140) | Dustfade |
 | Sniper Elite | older | $7.99 | 3,579 76% | 107k | $858k (exactly $857,886) | Rebellion |
 | METAL GEAR SOLID: Peace Walker - Master Collection Version | $19.99 | 925 79% | 28k | $555k (exactly $554,722) | KONAMI | |
 | METAL GEAR SOLID: MASTER COLLECTION Vol.2 | $49.99 | 49 65% | 1.5k | $73k (exactly $73,485) | KONAMI | |
 | Source Code | $19.99 | 33 60% | 990 | $20k (exactly $19,790) | Blitzball.Inc | |
 | The Core | · EA | $19.99 | 17 70% | 510 | $10k (exactly $10,195) | Electric Machine Games |
 | FEBA Gunship R | $2.99 | 9 100% | 270 | $807 (exactly $807) | rucsgames | |
 | Sky Combat: WWII Warplane Races | · EA | $14.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $450 (exactly $450) | Hard Shark Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.