Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Gambling

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gambling game?

Gambling

Of 372 developers who shipped a Gambling game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 547 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×8.1 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×2689 the market median. Revenue is up 125% on the market; 547 games are announced against 271 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 547 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Gambling
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 372
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $896 → $2.7k → $449 → $1.5k → $1.3k → $932 (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Gambling: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 372
Bottom 30% $238 (exactly $238)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $9.3k (exactly $9,344)
Top 5% $320k (exactly $320,046)
Developers, 2 yr 372
Released games 780
Announced 547
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply 160% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Gambling
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 132,881 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $960, 1 in 4 over $9.3k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 151 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 547 games are announced against 271 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Gambling

72 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Gambling + Romance Strong odds $5.7k 11 devs
  2. Dungeon Crawler + Gambling Fair $7.0k 16 devs
  3. Gambling + Visual Novel Fair $5.7k 16 devs
  4. Co-op + Gambling Fair $4.4k 22 devs
  5. Online Co-Op + Gambling Fair $4.4k 22 devs
  6. FPS + Gambling Fair $4.1k 24 devs
  7. Life Sim + Gambling Fair $4.0k 28 devs
  8. Sandbox + Gambling Fair $2.5k 25 devs
  9. Gambling + Female Protagonist Fair $2.4k 20 devs
  10. Multiple Endings + Gambling Fair $1.8k 30 devs
  11. Arcade + Gambling Fair $1.3k 96 devs
  12. Gambling + Mystery Fair $1.2k 23 devs
  13. Card Battler + Gambling Fair $1.0k 64 devs
  14. Gambling + Magic Fair $1.0k 18 devs
  15. Character Customization + Gambling Fair $836 30 devs
  16. Card Game + Gambling Fair $600 126 devs
  17. Gambling + Point & Click Fair $599 24 devs
  18. Choose Your Own Adventure + Gambling Fair $494 10 devs
  19. Immersive Sim + Gambling Long shot $300 33 devs
  20. Turn-Based + Gambling Poor odds $28k 11 devs
  21. Roguelike Deckbuilder + Gambling Poor odds $26k 31 devs
  22. Procedural Generation + Gambling Poor odds $20k 28 devs
  23. Management + Gambling Poor odds $5.9k 51 devs
  24. Collectathon + Gambling Poor odds $5.2k 16 devs
  25. Trading + Gambling Poor odds $3.6k 12 devs
  26. Survival + Gambling Poor odds $2.9k 16 devs
  27. Resource Management + Gambling Poor odds $2.7k 64 devs
  28. Automation + Gambling Poor odds $2.6k 24 devs
  29. Inventory Management + Gambling Poor odds $2.5k 22 devs
  30. Gambling + Idler Poor odds $2.5k 48 devs
  31. Gambling + Psychological Horror Poor odds $2.1k 43 devs
  32. Gambling + Horror Poor odds $2.1k 48 devs
  33. Gambling + Psychological Poor odds $2.1k 27 devs
  34. Tactical + Gambling Poor odds $1.9k 30 devs
  35. Gambling + Capitalism Poor odds $1.9k 50 devs
  36. RPG + Gambling Poor odds $1.8k 38 devs
  37. Deckbuilding + Gambling Poor odds $1.7k 84 devs
  38. Exploration + Gambling Poor odds $1.4k 23 devs
  39. PvP + Gambling Poor odds $1.3k 50 devs
  40. PvE + Gambling Poor odds $1.3k 33 devs
  41. Turn-Based Combat + Gambling Poor odds $1.3k 29 devs
  42. Perma Death + Gambling Poor odds $1.3k 21 devs
  43. Simulation + Gambling Poor odds $1.3k 154 devs
  44. Roguelike + Gambling Poor odds $1.2k 121 devs
  45. Physics + Gambling Poor odds $1.2k 29 devs
  46. Gambling + Incremental Poor odds $1.2k 66 devs
  47. Economy + Gambling Poor odds $1.2k 55 devs
  48. Strategy + Gambling Poor odds $1.0k 211 devs
  49. Roguelite + Gambling Poor odds $1.0k 109 devs
  50. Gambling + Fantasy Poor odds $1.0k 36 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

NBA 2K25 2024 · $65M TEKKEN 8 2024 · $55M NBA 2K26 2025 · $54M Judgment 2022 · $11M Buckshot Roulette 2024 · $9.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NBA 2K25 older $69.99 30,969 60% 929k $65M (exactly $65,025,609) Visual Concepts
TEKKEN 8 older $39.99 46,009 56% 1.4M $55M (exactly $55,196,997) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
NBA 2K26 $69.99 25,651 66% 770k $54M (exactly $53,859,405) Visual Concepts
Judgment older $39.99 9,407 93% 282k $11M (exactly $11,285,578) RGG Studio
Buckshot Roulette older $2.99 110,042 95% 3.3M $9.9M (exactly $9,870,767) Mike Klubnika
Test Drive Unlimited Solar Crown older $49.99 6,536 38% 196k $9.8M (exactly $9,802,039) KT Racing
Lost Judgment older $39.99 7,461 93% 224k $9.0M (exactly $8,950,962) RGG Studio
CloverPit $9.99 24,710 90% 741k $7.4M (exactly $7,405,587) Panik Arcade
Gamble With Your Friends $7.99 18,883 89% 566k $4.5M (exactly $4,526,255) TEAM GWYF
NBA 2K27 $69.99 1,698 53% 51k $3.6M (exactly $3,565,291) Visual Concepts
The Coin Game $19.99 5,647 92% 169k $3.4M (exactly $3,386,506) devotid
Scritchy Scratchy $6.99 15,245 94% 457k $3.2M (exactly $3,196,876) Lunch Money Games
Nubby's Number Factory $4.99 18,138 97% 544k $2.7M (exactly $2,715,259) MogDogBlog Productions
Poker Night at the Inventory $9.99 8,143 94% 244k $2.4M (exactly $2,440,457) Skunkape Games
Bills Must Be Paid $6.99 9,928 96% 298k $2.1M (exactly $2,081,902) Rike Games
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.