Do I ship it?

GamesLife SimLife Sim + Gambling

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gambling Life Sim?

Life Sim + Gambling

Of 28 developers who shipped a Gambling Life Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×8.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $540. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 32 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 32 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Life Sim + Gambling
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $160k → $32k → $5.2k → $4.0k → $3.6k (still earning) → $5.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Life Sim + Gambling: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $535 (exactly $535)
Median $4.0k (exactly $4,046)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $31,479)
Top 5% $872k (exactly $872,427)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 44
Announced 32
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Life Sim, Gambling; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Economy
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 10,744 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $4.0k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $870k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Life Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds38 devs · median $54k · 21 announced
  2. + MinigamesStrong odds20 devs · median $11k · 19 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds28 devs · median $9.2k · 20 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair144 devs · median $19k · 153 announced
  5. + Football (Soccer)Fair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  6. + FaithFair11 devs · median $9.4k · 13 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceFair92 devs · median $7.3k · 121 announced
  8. + DemonsFair16 devs · median $2.4k · 22 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair162 devs · median $2.4k · 219 announced
  10. + LogicFair70 devs · median $1.5k · 74 announced
  11. + ZombiesFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 34 announced
  12. + Walking SimulatorFair126 devs · median $1.3k · 144 announced

All 173 pairs on the Life Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Coin Game $19.99 5,647 92% 169k $3.4M (exactly $3,386,506) devotid
STONKS-9800: Stock Market Simulator · EA older $9.99 3,124 95% 94k $936k (exactly $936,263) TERNOX
Horsey Game $9.99 2,911 97% 87k $872k (exactly $872,427) Captain Games
Drug Lord Tycoon · EA older $9.99 1,671 83% 50k $501k (exactly $500,799) Duhndal
The House Always Wins $12.99 866 85% 26k $337k (exactly $337,480) Toxic Studio
Ultimate Theater Simulator $12.99 634 88% 19k $247k (exactly $247,070) RAKTWO Games, steelbox Games
Casino Simulator · EA older $9.99 786 81% 24k $236k (exactly $235,564) Lodos Games
Dog Brew older $3.50 1,522 97% 46k $160k (exactly $159,810) Yuliy Oneshko, S-Grade
Exotica: Petshop Simulator older $7.99 482 81% 14k $116k (exactly $115,535) Konrul Game
Bowling Alley Simulator $14.99 251 90% 7.5k $113k (exactly $112,875) Vulcron
Casino Island Simulator · EA $8.99 120 61% 3.6k $32k (exactly $32,364) Clap Games
Rich List: The Order · EA $14.99 70 90% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,479) YUANYE TECH
Casino Simulator 2024 $5.99 119 69% 3.6k $21k (exactly $21,384) METAGAR
Smoke & Lottery Simulator $9.99 57 85% 1.7k $17k (exactly $17,083) EdenStudio
Casino Boss Simulator $4.99 69 56% 2.1k $10k (exactly $10,329) Nons Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.