Games › Physics › Physics + Gambling
Should I ship a Physics Gambling game?
Physics + Gambling
Of 29 developers who shipped a Physics Gambling game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 59 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $3.3M, ×5393 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 59 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $179 (exactly $179) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.2k (exactly $1,200) |
| Top 25% | $46k (exactly $45,909) |
| Top 5% | $3.4M (exactly $3,386,506) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 29 |
| Released games | 55 |
| Announced | 59 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 2700% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics, Gambling; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Arcade, Procedural Generation
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 38,218 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 59 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Gamble With Your Friends 2026 · $4.5M 
The Coin Game 2026 · $3.4M 
Dungeon Clawler 2026 · $1.7M 
RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike 2026 · $1.5M 
Horsey Game 2026 · $872k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Gamble With Your Friends | $7.99 | 18,883 89% | 566k | $4.5M (exactly $4,526,255) | TEAM GWYF | |
| | The Coin Game | $19.99 | 5,647 92% | 169k | $3.4M (exactly $3,386,506) | devotid | |
| | Dungeon Clawler | $14.99 | 3,716 88% | 111k | $1.7M (exactly $1,671,085) | Stray Fawn Studio | |
| | RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike | $11.99 | 4,239 82% | 127k | $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) | Doraccoon | |
| | Horsey Game | $9.99 | 2,911 97% | 87k | $872k (exactly $872,427) | Captain Games | |
 | The House Always Wins | $12.99 | 866 85% | 26k | $337k (exactly $337,480) | Toxic Studio | |
 | Casino Simulator | · EA older | $9.99 | 786 81% | 24k | $236k (exactly $235,564) | Lodos Games |
 | KEEP GAMBLING | $7.77 | 966 74% | 29k | $225k (exactly $225,175) | WIRED FEELINGS | |
 | NKODICE | older | $9.99 | 401 96% | 12k | $120k (exactly $120,180) | KSYM |
 | Particul | $1.99 | 769 80% | 23k | $46k (exactly $45,909) | MILLION PIXELS | |
 | Cupiclaw | $9.99 | 115 87% | 3.5k | $34k (exactly $34,466) | Typin | |
 | Break Shoot | $4.99 | 106 99% | 3.2k | $16k (exactly $15,868) | UPTRAND |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.