Do I ship it?

Games › Strategy › Strategy + Gambling

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gambling Strategy game?

Strategy + Gambling

Of 211 developers who shipped a Gambling Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 336 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×477 the market median. Revenue is up 225% on the market; 336 games are announced against 150 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 225% on the market, 336 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Gambling
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 211
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $386 → $9.0k → $4.0k → $599 → $1.9k → $959 → $1.2k (still earning) → $748 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Gambling: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 211
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,136)
Top 5% $300k (exactly $299,500)
Developers, 2 yr 211
Released games 368
Announced 336
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 225% on the market, supply 145% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy, Gambling; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Roguelite, Deckbuilding
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 78,239 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 85 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 336 games are announced against 150 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Buckshot Roulette 2024 · $9.9M CloverPit 2025 · $7.4M Nubby's Number Factory 2025 · $2.7M Bills Must Be Paid 2026 · $2.1M Sol Cesto 2026 · $2.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Buckshot Roulette older $2.99 110,042 95% 3.3M $9.9M (exactly $9,870,767) Mike Klubnika
CloverPit $9.99 24,710 90% 741k $7.4M (exactly $7,405,587) Panik Arcade
Nubby's Number Factory $4.99 18,138 97% 544k $2.7M (exactly $2,715,259) MogDogBlog Productions
Bills Must Be Paid $6.99 9,928 96% 298k $2.1M (exactly $2,081,902) Rike Games
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)
Slots & Daggers $7.99 7,421 93% 223k $1.8M (exactly $1,778,814) Friedemann
Dungeon Clawler $14.99 3,716 88% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,671,085) Stray Fawn Studio
RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike $11.99 4,239 82% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) Doraccoon
Dungeons & Degenerate Gamblers older $14.99 2,988 81% 90k $1.3M (exactly $1,343,704) Purple Moss Collectors
Tharsis older $14.99 1,438 71% 43k $647k (exactly $646,669) Choice Provisions
Gamblers Table $6.99 2,955 74% 89k $620k (exactly $619,664) greenpixels, Bossforge
This Ain’t Even Poker, Ya Joker $5.99 1,781 86% 53k $320k (exactly $320,046) Mash
Space Warlord Baby Trading Simulator $19.99 513 91% 15k $308k (exactly $307,646) Strange Scaffold

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.