Do I ship it?

GamesGamblingGambling + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Gambling game?

Gambling + Horror

Of 48 developers who shipped a Horror Gambling game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 73 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×4.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×648 the market median. Revenue is up 275% on the market; 73 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 275% on the market, 73 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Gambling + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 48
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.6k → $359 → $6.3k → $6.5k → $2.2k (still earning) → $932 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Gambling + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 48
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,063)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,569)
Top 5% $308k (exactly $307,646)
Developers, 2 yr 48
Released games 63
Announced 73
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 275% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Gambling; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, PvP, Puzzle
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Dark, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 48,184 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $300k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 73 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Gambling with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds11 devs · median $5.7k · 9 announced
  2. + Dungeon CrawlerFair16 devs · median $7.0k · 17 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair16 devs · median $5.7k · 12 announced
  4. + Online Co-OpFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Co-opFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 32 announced
  6. + FPSFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  7. + Life SimFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  8. + SandboxFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  10. + Multiple EndingsFair30 devs · median $1.8k · 42 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair96 devs · median $1.3k · 129 announced
  12. + MysteryFair23 devs · median $1.2k · 26 announced

All 71 pairs on the Gambling page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Buckshot Roulette older $2.99 110,042 95% 3.3M $9.9M (exactly $9,870,767) Mike Klubnika
CloverPit $9.99 24,710 90% 741k $7.4M (exactly $7,405,587) Panik Arcade
Nubby's Number Factory $4.99 18,138 97% 544k $2.7M (exactly $2,715,259) MogDogBlog Productions
Cricket 22 older $44.99 1,717 81% 52k $2.3M (exactly $2,317,435) Big Ant Studios
Tharsis older $14.99 1,438 71% 43k $647k (exactly $646,669) Choice Provisions
Space Warlord Baby Trading Simulator $19.99 513 91% 15k $308k (exactly $307,646) Strange Scaffold
Nine-Ball Roulette $3.99 2,159 88% 65k $258k (exactly $258,432) WaveBox Labs
Bogos Binted? $5.49 1,134 91% 34k $187k (exactly $186,770) underbadger
SIDE EFFECTS $4.99 858 83% 26k $128k (exactly $128,443) hirohun, Mr.Pootsley, Jaybooty, Lofar42
Cut That Wire $6.99 243 84% 7.3k $51k (exactly $50,957) WakaStudio
Bonesaw $6.66 179 89% 5.4k $36k (exactly $35,764) Blood Pact Studios
Deadly Heart Gambit $6.99 107 90% 3.2k $22k (exactly $22,438) Blink Hydrate ブリンク
Spider Roulette $4.99 143 91% 4.3k $21k (exactly $21,407) Kud

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.