Do I ship it?

GamesGamblingGambling + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Idler Gambling game?

Gambling + Idler

Of 48 developers who shipped an Idler Gambling game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 87 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×21 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $880k, ×7477 the market median. Revenue is up 280% on the market; 87 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 21.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 280% on the market, 87 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Gambling + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 48
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $478 → $52k → $10k → $5.9k (still earning) → $2.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Gambling + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 48
Bottom 30% $418 (exactly $418)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,507)
Top 25% $46k (exactly $45,909)
Top 5% $890k (exactly $889,766)
Developers, 2 yr 48
Released games 92
Announced 87
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 280% on the market, supply 485% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 32%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Gambling, Idler; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Incremental, Resource Management, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, Relaxing, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 41,319 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $45k, 1 in 20 over $880k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 87 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Gambling with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds11 devs · median $5.7k · 9 announced
  2. + Dungeon CrawlerFair16 devs · median $7.0k · 17 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair16 devs · median $5.7k · 12 announced
  4. + Online Co-OpFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Co-opFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 32 announced
  6. + FPSFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  7. + Life SimFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  8. + SandboxFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  10. + Multiple EndingsFair30 devs · median $1.8k · 42 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair96 devs · median $1.3k · 129 announced
  12. + MysteryFair23 devs · median $1.2k · 26 announced

All 71 pairs on the Gambling page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Scritchy Scratchy $6.99 15,245 94% 457k $3.2M (exactly $3,196,876) Lunch Money Games
Bills Must Be Paid $6.99 9,928 96% 298k $2.1M (exactly $2,081,902) Rike Games
Fortune Mill $7.99 3,712 81% 111k $890k (exactly $889,766) Lavaflame2
Gamblers Table $6.99 2,955 74% 89k $620k (exactly $619,664) greenpixels, Bossforge
Click the Button $3.99 3,849 93% 115k $461k (exactly $460,725) LoopCap
This Ain’t Even Poker, Ya Joker $5.99 1,781 86% 53k $320k (exactly $320,046) Mash
Incredicer $2.99 2,408 85% 72k $216k (exactly $215,998) pochi
LOLLIPOP! older $4.99 1,318 75% 40k $197k (exactly $197,305) 430Games, __Ja__ga__imo__
Slots & Diapers $6.99 539 88% 16k $113k (exactly $113,028) Parodie Games
Dice People $2.99 719 90% 22k $64k (exactly $64,494) Mateusk2m, Manodeix
Scratch the Ticket $9.99 183 44% 5.5k $55k (exactly $54,845) Shilenok

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.