Do I ship it?

GamesChoose Your Own AdventureChoose Your Own Adventure + Gambling

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gambling Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Choose Your Own Adventure + Gambling

Only 10 developers shipped a Gambling Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Lust Poker Club, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $490, ×4.2 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $450. Revenue is up 85% on the market; 14 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 85% on the market, 14 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Gambling
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.2k → $4.3k → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choose Your Own Adventure + Gambling: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $494 (exactly $494)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,320)
Top 5% $21k (exactly $21,333)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 28
Announced 14
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 85% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Choose Your Own Adventure, Gambling
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 75% positive over 164 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $490, 1 in 4 over $4.3k, 1 in 20 over $21k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choose Your Own Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + FMVFair79 devs · median $54k · 74 announced
  3. + FlightFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  4. + SportsFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Word GameFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  6. + MilitaryFair23 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  7. + Score AttackFair14 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  8. + IdlerFair41 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  9. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  10. + 3D FighterLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  11. + NavalPoor odds9 devs · median $14k · 16 announced
  12. + Time ManipulationPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 24 announced

All 198 pairs on the Choose Your Own Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STONKS-9800: Stock Market Simulator · EA older $9.99 3,124 95% 94k $936k (exactly $936,263) TERNOX
Sinsations older $24.99 43 93% 1.3k $32k (exactly $32,237) Frigid Delights Studios LLC
Lust Poker Club $7.99 89 78% 2.7k $21k (exactly $21,333) Cutie Booty
The Divine Deception older $14.99 38 86% 1.1k $17k (exactly $17,089) Themisian
Usagi Health Club older $14.99 28 60% 840 $13k (exactly $12,592) PUSH! Soft
Survive In Russia older $5.99 50 62% 1.5k $9.0k (exactly $8,985) Alexander Sablin
Curt Maddox older $7.99 34 85% 1.0k $8.2k (exactly $8,150) Lesson of Passion
Casino Management Simulator · EA $12.99 20 60% 600 $7.8k (exactly $7,794) BroxStudios
Spicy Strip Poker older $5.99 32 75% 960 $5.8k (exactly $5,750) Gambler
King of Phoenix older $4.99 35 60% 1.1k $5.2k (exactly $5,240) King Key Games
Butter Side Down $6.00 24 100% 720 $4.3k (exactly $4,320) Kalle MacDonald, Lachlan MacDonald
Fortune Paradox $4.99 13 84% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) StoneBreaker Studios
She Plays Dirty $3.29 5 0% 150 $494 (exactly $494) Myriad
Idle Tiers $1.99 8 12% 240 $478 (exactly $478) IdleClick Games
Suki Suki Love $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) 0_skailer_0
Wizards 95 $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) backpocketgames
O.B.O.L $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) MrEliptik, Woland
STILL SPINNING $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) sakanafurai

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.