Do I ship it?

Games › Gambling › Gambling + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Gambling game?

Gambling + Magic

Only 18 developers shipped a Magic Gambling game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Slot & Dungeons, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×2.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $210. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 27 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 27 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Gambling + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $1.3k → $1.6k (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Gambling + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $2.4k (exactly $2,394)
Top 5% $82k (exactly $81,989)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 33
Announced 27
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 700% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Gambling; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Battler, Card Game
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $8.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $8.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 526 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $81k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 27 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Gambling with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds11 devs · median $5.7k · 9 announced
  2. + Dungeon CrawlerFair16 devs · median $7.0k · 17 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair16 devs · median $5.7k · 12 announced
  4. + Online Co-OpFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Co-opFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 32 announced
  6. + FPSFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  7. + Life SimFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  8. + SandboxFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  10. + Multiple EndingsFair30 devs · median $1.8k · 42 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair96 devs · median $1.3k · 129 announced
  12. + MysteryFair23 devs · median $1.2k · 26 announced

All 71 pairs on the Gambling page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

LOLLIPOP! 2021 · $197k Slot & Dungeons 2026 · $82k Lust Poker Club 2026 · $21k 令和罕见物语 2023 · $18k Glassbreakers: Champions of Moss 2025 · $13k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
LOLLIPOP! older $4.99 1,318 75% 40k $197k (exactly $197,305) 430Games, __Ja__ga__imo__
Slot & Dungeons $8.99 304 83% 9.1k $82k (exactly $81,989) MUC GAMES
Lust Poker Club $7.99 89 78% 2.7k $21k (exactly $21,333) Cutie Booty
令和罕见物语 older $4.99 118 84% 3.5k $18k (exactly $17,665) 哥布林软件
Glassbreakers: Champions of Moss $19.99 22 63% 660 $13k (exactly $13,193) Polyarc
Gamble Tower older $14.99 26 96% 780 $12k (exactly $11,692) Indiebuild
Curt Maddox older $7.99 34 85% 1.0k $8.2k (exactly $8,150) Lesson of Passion
Isekai Mage Girl Gacha Pull Simulator: Elemental Card Collection $6.99 27 74% 810 $5.7k (exactly $5,662) Violet Soft
Zhulik.exe older $3.99 28 85% 840 $3.4k (exactly $3,352) DarkDes Labs
Another World - Thought Taboo older $4.99 20 85% 600 $3.0k (exactly $2,994) Ashwind
ホロライブオールスター バトルタイルズ $3.99 20 25% 600 $2.4k (exactly $2,394) BG2研
TwentyOne $4.99 11 100% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) StuckArcader
Soul Stake $3.99 11 90% 330 $1.3k (exactly $1,317) Tap-Tap Legends
Cutting Grass with Nail Clippers the game $1.99 21 90% 630 $1.3k (exactly $1,254) Rotwallington Games
DIMENGUARD $4.99 7 100% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) RayMag
Slashboy $1.99 14 92% 420 $836 (exactly $836) Punch Game Project

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.