Do I ship it?

Games › PvP › PvP + Gambling

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Gambling game?

PvP + Gambling

Of 50 developers who shipped a PvP Gambling game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 77 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×0.9 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×150 the market median. Revenue is up 345% on the market; 77 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 345% on the market, 77 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Gambling
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 50
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $29k → $836 → $2.7k → $2.4k → $838 (still earning) → $2.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Gambling: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 50
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,173)
Top 5% $225k (exactly $225,175)
Developers, 2 yr 50
Released games 124
Announced 77
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 345% on the market, supply 140% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 40%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Gambling; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Co-op, Online Co-Op
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 33,450 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 77 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

NBA 2K25 2024 · $65M TEKKEN 8 2024 · $55M NBA 2K26 2025 · $54M NBA 2K27 2026 · $3.6M Poker Club 2020 · $303k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NBA 2K25 older $69.99 30,969 60% 929k $65M (exactly $65,025,609) Visual Concepts
TEKKEN 8 older $39.99 46,009 56% 1.4M $55M (exactly $55,196,997) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
NBA 2K26 $69.99 25,651 66% 770k $54M (exactly $53,859,405) Visual Concepts
NBA 2K27 $69.99 1,698 53% 51k $3.6M (exactly $3,565,291) Visual Concepts
Poker Club older $19.99 506 58% 15k $303k (exactly $303,448) Ripstone
Nine-Ball Roulette $3.99 2,159 88% 65k $258k (exactly $258,432) WaveBox Labs
KEEP GAMBLING $7.77 966 74% 29k $225k (exactly $225,175) WIRED FEELINGS
Bogos Binted? $5.49 1,134 91% 34k $187k (exactly $186,770) underbadger
SIDE EFFECTS $4.99 858 83% 26k $128k (exactly $128,443) hirohun, Mr.Pootsley, Jaybooty, Lofar42
Bullet Roulette VR older $7.99 435 86% 13k $104k (exactly $104,270) Fibrum Limited
Capote $5.99 397 97% 12k $71k (exactly $71,341) Luski Game Studio
Cut That Wire $6.99 243 84% 7.3k $51k (exactly $50,957) WakaStudio
Bonesaw $6.66 179 89% 5.4k $36k (exactly $35,764) Blood Pact Studios
Explosive Odds $4.99 165 92% 5.0k $25k (exactly $24,700) Pig Bot Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.