Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Gambling

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gambling Economy game?

Economy + Gambling

Of 55 developers who shipped a Gambling Economy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 113 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $610k, ×987 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 113 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 113 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Gambling
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $418 → $116k → $32k → $5.2k → $2.0k → $1.2k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Gambling: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,197)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $25,793)
Top 5% $620k (exactly $619,664)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 93
Announced 113
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 225% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy, Gambling; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Resource Management
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Pixel Graphics, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 27,630 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $610k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 113 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Scritchy Scratchy $6.99 15,245 94% 457k $3.2M (exactly $3,196,876) Lunch Money Games
STONKS-9800: Stock Market Simulator · EA older $9.99 3,124 95% 94k $936k (exactly $936,263) TERNOX
Fortune Mill $7.99 3,712 81% 111k $890k (exactly $889,766) Lavaflame2
Gamblers Table $6.99 2,955 74% 89k $620k (exactly $619,664) greenpixels, Bossforge
Drug Lord Tycoon · EA older $9.99 1,671 83% 50k $501k (exactly $500,799) Duhndal
The House Always Wins $12.99 866 85% 26k $337k (exactly $337,480) Toxic Studio
Space Warlord Baby Trading Simulator $19.99 513 91% 15k $308k (exactly $307,646) Strange Scaffold
Ultimate Theater Simulator $12.99 634 88% 19k $247k (exactly $247,070) RAKTWO Games, steelbox Games
Casino Simulator · EA older $9.99 786 81% 24k $236k (exactly $235,564) Lodos Games
Incredicer $2.99 2,408 85% 72k $216k (exactly $215,998) pochi
Slots & Diapers $6.99 539 88% 16k $113k (exactly $113,028) Parodie Games
Scratch the Ticket $9.99 183 44% 5.5k $55k (exactly $54,845) Shilenok
Scratchers $2.99 575 57% 17k $52k (exactly $51,578) muffler

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.