Do I ship it?

GamesGamblingGambling + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Gambling game?

Gambling + Female Protagonist

Of 20 developers who shipped a Female-Led Gambling game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×5.0 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $810. Revenue is up 475% on the market; 10 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 475% on the market, 10 announced, ×0.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Gambling + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.3k → $449 → $13k → $3.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Gambling + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $809 (exactly $809)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,394)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,523)
Top 5% $180k (exactly $179,888)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 41
Announced 10
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 475% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Gambling; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Game, RPG, Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 1,849 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $810, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $810. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Gambling with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds11 devs · median $5.7k · 9 announced
  2. + Dungeon CrawlerFair16 devs · median $7.0k · 17 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair16 devs · median $5.7k · 12 announced
  4. + Online Co-OpFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Co-opFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 32 announced
  6. + FPSFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  7. + Life SimFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  8. + SandboxFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Multiple EndingsFair30 devs · median $1.8k · 42 announced
  10. + ArcadeFair96 devs · median $1.3k · 129 announced
  11. + MysteryFair23 devs · median $1.2k · 26 announced
  12. + Card BattlerFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 77 announced

All 71 pairs on the Gambling page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
All in Abyss: Judge the Fake $15.99 375 54% 11k $180k (exactly $179,888) ACQUIRE Corp., WSS playground
Dicealot $14.99 218 78% 6.5k $98k (exactly $98,035) goodviewgames
Midnight Mahjong older $6.99 227 64% 6.8k $48k (exactly $47,602) AleCubicSoft
Unlucky Mummy $4.49 281 84% 8.4k $38k (exactly $37,851) Karaclan
Get Me Out, Please older $29.99 31 67% 930 $28k (exactly $27,891) D.H Inc., 株式会社ディッジ
Deadly Heart Gambit $6.99 107 90% 3.2k $22k (exactly $22,438) Blink Hydrate ブリンク
Poker Pretty Girls Battle: Texas Hold'em older $4.99 118 56% 3.5k $18k (exactly $17,665) Zoo Corporation
ENCOUNTER BAR $0.99 590 78% 18k $18k (exactly $17,523) 2R
The Divine Deception older $14.99 38 86% 1.1k $17k (exactly $17,089) Themisian
Your Second Wife $3.99 135 84% 4.1k $16k (exactly $16,160) Kygua Tech
Chasing the Dawn / CTD $8.99 54 98% 1.6k $15k (exactly $14,564) Wave Games
Tie Me, Bind Me, HIT ME! $7.99 53 71% 1.6k $13k (exactly $12,704) Wrapturous DevTeam
Scary Shadow Spot - All In $7.99 16 93% 480 $3.8k (exactly $3,835) Daniele Doesn't Matter
ホロライブオールスター バトルタイルズ $3.99 20 25% 600 $2.4k (exactly $2,394) BG2研

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.