Do I ship it?

GamesGamblingGambling + Point & Click

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gambling Point & Click game?

Gambling + Point & Click

Of 24 developers who shipped a Gambling Point & Click game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×5.0 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $180. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 28 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 28 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Gambling + Point & Click
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $330 → $5.2k → $1.1k (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Gambling + Point & Click: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $5.2k (exactly $5,211)
Top 5% $52k (exactly $51,578)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 64
Announced 28
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 280% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Point & Click
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Gambling, Point & Click; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Idler, Incremental
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $5.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $5.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 4,767 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $600, 1 in 4 over $5.2k, 1 in 20 over $51k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Gambling with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds11 devs · median $5.7k · 9 announced
  2. + Dungeon CrawlerFair16 devs · median $7.0k · 17 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair16 devs · median $5.7k · 12 announced
  4. + Online Co-OpFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Co-opFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 32 announced
  6. + FPSFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  7. + Life SimFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  8. + SandboxFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  10. + Multiple EndingsFair30 devs · median $1.8k · 42 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair96 devs · median $1.3k · 129 announced
  12. + MysteryFair23 devs · median $1.2k · 26 announced

All 71 pairs on the Gambling page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Card Shark older $19.99 2,965 90% 89k $1.8M (exactly $1,778,110) Nerial
Click the Button $3.99 3,849 93% 115k $461k (exactly $460,725) LoopCap
LOLLIPOP! older $4.99 1,318 75% 40k $197k (exactly $197,305) 430Games, __Ja__ga__imo__
Scratchers $2.99 575 57% 17k $52k (exactly $51,578) muffler
I Can't Believe It's Not Gambling older $0.99 1,542 91% 46k $46k (exactly $45,797) Mutant Entertainment Studios
ARSONATE $2.99 158 87% 4.7k $14k (exactly $14,173) Nash
Dice Goblins Clicker $5.99 52 65% 1.6k $9.3k (exactly $9,344) Crytime
Curt Maddox older $7.99 34 85% 1.0k $8.2k (exactly $8,150) Lesson of Passion
Telltale Texas Hold ‘Em older $0.99 235 79% 7.1k $7.0k (exactly $6,980) Telltale
Harvest Dice Profit $2.99 66 92% 2.0k $5.9k (exactly $5,920) Red Corn
Funfair Billionaire $5.99 29 82% 870 $5.2k (exactly $5,211) Yunogames
Casino Casualty $7.99 12 91% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) GlitchedLizard
Home Rescue: Clean and Restore Collector's Edition $11.99 4 0% 120 $1.4k (exactly $1,439) Avi Games
Fate Dealer $2.99 14 85% 420 $1.3k (exactly $1,256) Anguish Dealer
Gift Drop Machine: Life Simulator · EA $4.99 8 50% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) PEGAX Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.