Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Gambling

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gambling Sandbox?

Sandbox + Gambling

Of 25 developers who shipped a Gambling Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $300. Revenue is up 640% on the market; 31 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 640% on the market, 31 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Gambling
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $418 → $1.9k → $21k → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Gambling: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 25% $144k (exactly $143,957)
Top 5% $3.4M (exactly $3,386,506)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 42
Announced 31
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 640% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Gambling; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Open World, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 33,158 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $140k, 1 in 20 over $3.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  9. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  10. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  11. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced
  12. + IncrementalFair196 devs · median $748 · 248 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Gamble With Your Friends $7.99 18,883 89% 566k $4.5M (exactly $4,526,255) TEAM GWYF
The Coin Game $19.99 5,647 92% 169k $3.4M (exactly $3,386,506) devotid
Fortune Mill $7.99 3,712 81% 111k $890k (exactly $889,766) Lavaflame2
Horsey Game $9.99 2,911 97% 87k $872k (exactly $872,427) Captain Games
Drug Lord Tycoon · EA older $9.99 1,671 83% 50k $501k (exactly $500,799) Duhndal
Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates $19.99 638 70% 19k $383k (exactly $382,609) ReCon Team
Ultimate Theater Simulator $12.99 634 88% 19k $247k (exactly $247,070) RAKTWO Games, steelbox Games
硬币与仙人掌 (Coins & Wishpalm) $13.99 343 77% 10k $144k (exactly $143,957) Moshow Games
Exotica: Petshop Simulator older $7.99 482 81% 14k $116k (exactly $115,535) Konrul Game
Bowling Alley Simulator $14.99 251 90% 7.5k $113k (exactly $112,875) Vulcron
Casino Simulator 2024 $5.99 119 69% 3.6k $21k (exactly $21,384) METAGAR
Casino Management Simulator · EA $12.99 20 60% 600 $7.8k (exactly $7,794) BroxStudios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.