Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Gambling

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gambling RPG?

RPG + Gambling

Of 38 developers who shipped a Gambling RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 66 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×609 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 66 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 66 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Gambling
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $386 → $240 → $599 → $19k → $4.3k → $299 (still earning) → $4.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Gambling: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,797)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,581)
Top 5% $383k (exactly $382,609)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 88
Announced 66
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Gambling; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Deckbuilding, Roguelike, Strategy
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 8,938 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 66 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Lost Judgment 2022 · $9.0M Card Shark 2022 · $1.8M Dungeon Clawler 2026 · $1.7M Dungeons & Degenerate Gamblers 2024 · $1.3M Tharsis 2016 · $647k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lost Judgment older $39.99 7,461 93% 224k $9.0M (exactly $8,950,962) RGG Studio
Card Shark older $19.99 2,965 90% 89k $1.8M (exactly $1,778,110) Nerial
Dungeon Clawler $14.99 3,716 88% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,671,085) Stray Fawn Studio
Dungeons & Degenerate Gamblers older $14.99 2,988 81% 90k $1.3M (exactly $1,343,704) Purple Moss Collectors
Tharsis older $14.99 1,438 71% 43k $647k (exactly $646,669) Choice Provisions
Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates $19.99 638 70% 19k $383k (exactly $382,609) ReCon Team
Nine-Ball Roulette $3.99 2,159 88% 65k $258k (exactly $258,432) WaveBox Labs
Big Winner $12.99 550 82% 17k $214k (exactly $214,335) iFAction Studio
All in Abyss: Judge the Fake $15.99 375 54% 11k $180k (exactly $179,888) ACQUIRE Corp., WSS playground
Dog Brew older $3.50 1,522 97% 46k $160k (exactly $159,810) Yuliy Oneshko, S-Grade
硬币与仙人掌 (Coins & Wishpalm) $13.99 343 77% 10k $144k (exactly $143,957) Moshow Games
Spin Hero $7.99 573 73% 17k $137k (exactly $137,348) Sphere Studios
Dicealot $14.99 218 78% 6.5k $98k (exactly $98,035) goodviewgames
Slot & Dungeons $8.99 304 83% 9.1k $82k (exactly $81,989) MUC GAMES
GABANG: ULTIMATE $9.99 62 90% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,581) MOL?ASTUDIO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.