Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + Gambling

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gambling Arcade game?

Arcade + Gambling

Of 96 developers who shipped a Gambling Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 129 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.7 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $180. Revenue is up 90% on the market; 129 games are announced against 73 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 90% on the market, 129 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Gambling
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 96
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $330 → $540 → $269 → $1.8k → $6.3k → $1.6k (still earning) → $628 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Gambling: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 96
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,259)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,745)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,671,085)
Developers, 2 yr 96
Released games 161
Announced 129
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply 205% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade, Gambling; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 62,581 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 129 games are announced against 73 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

TEKKEN 8 2024 · $55M Test Drive Unlimited Solar Crown 2024 · $9.8M The Coin Game 2026 · $3.4M Scritchy Scratchy 2026 · $3.2M Nubby's Number Factory 2025 · $2.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TEKKEN 8 older $39.99 46,009 56% 1.4M $55M (exactly $55,196,997) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
Test Drive Unlimited Solar Crown older $49.99 6,536 38% 196k $9.8M (exactly $9,802,039) KT Racing
The Coin Game $19.99 5,647 92% 169k $3.4M (exactly $3,386,506) devotid
Scritchy Scratchy $6.99 15,245 94% 457k $3.2M (exactly $3,196,876) Lunch Money Games
Nubby's Number Factory $4.99 18,138 97% 544k $2.7M (exactly $2,715,259) MogDogBlog Productions
Bills Must Be Paid $6.99 9,928 96% 298k $2.1M (exactly $2,081,902) Rike Games
Dungeon Clawler $14.99 3,716 88% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,671,085) Stray Fawn Studio
RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike $11.99 4,239 82% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) Doraccoon
This Ain’t Even Poker, Ya Joker $5.99 1,781 86% 53k $320k (exactly $320,046) Mash
Space Warlord Baby Trading Simulator $19.99 513 91% 15k $308k (exactly $307,646) Strange Scaffold
KEEP GAMBLING $7.77 966 74% 29k $225k (exactly $225,175) WIRED FEELINGS
Incredicer $2.99 2,408 85% 72k $216k (exactly $215,998) pochi

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.