Do I ship it?

GamesGamblingGambling + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Gambling game?

Gambling + Psychological Horror

Of 43 developers who shipped a Psychological-Horror Gambling game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 63 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×4.4 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $2.4M, ×5138 the market median. Revenue is up 240% on the market; 63 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 240% on the market, 63 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Gambling + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 43
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $22k → $6.3k → $3.6k (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Gambling + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 43
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $20,182)
Top 5% $2.4M (exactly $2,440,457)
Developers, 2 yr 43
Released games 57
Announced 63
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 240% on the market, supply 130% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Gambling; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Game, Puzzle
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $8.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Dark, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $8.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 55,751 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $2.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 6 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 63 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Gambling with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds11 devs · median $5.7k · 9 announced
  2. + Dungeon CrawlerFair16 devs · median $7.0k · 17 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair16 devs · median $5.7k · 12 announced
  4. + Online Co-OpFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Co-opFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 32 announced
  6. + FPSFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  7. + Life SimFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  8. + SandboxFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  10. + Multiple EndingsFair30 devs · median $1.8k · 42 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair96 devs · median $1.3k · 129 announced
  12. + MysteryFair23 devs · median $1.2k · 26 announced

All 71 pairs on the Gambling page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Buckshot Roulette older $2.99 110,042 95% 3.3M $9.9M (exactly $9,870,767) Mike Klubnika
CloverPit $9.99 24,710 90% 741k $7.4M (exactly $7,405,587) Panik Arcade
Nubby's Number Factory $4.99 18,138 97% 544k $2.7M (exactly $2,715,259) MogDogBlog Productions
Poker Night at the Inventory $9.99 8,143 94% 244k $2.4M (exactly $2,440,457) Skunkape Games
Menherarium: Deadly Dice $8.99 669 92% 20k $180k (exactly $180,429) テスカトリポカ
Unfair Flips $1.99 2,523 88% 76k $151k (exactly $150,623) HEATHER FLOWERS
SIDE EFFECTS $4.99 858 83% 26k $128k (exactly $128,443) hirohun, Mr.Pootsley, Jaybooty, Lofar42
I Can't Believe It's Not Gambling older $0.99 1,542 91% 46k $46k (exactly $45,797) Mutant Entertainment Studios
Unlucky Mummy $4.49 281 84% 8.4k $38k (exactly $37,851) Karaclan
Mahjong Nagomi older $4.99 245 79% 7.4k $37k (exactly $36,676) Zoo Corporation
Bonesaw $6.66 179 89% 5.4k $36k (exactly $35,764) Blood Pact Studios
Deadly Heart Gambit $6.99 107 90% 3.2k $22k (exactly $22,438) Blink Hydrate ブリンク
Spider Roulette $4.99 143 91% 4.3k $21k (exactly $21,407) Kud

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.