Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Gambling

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gambling Survival game?

Survival + Gambling

Only 16 developers shipped a Gambling Survival game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Coin Game, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $3.3M, ×5393 the market median. Revenue is up 130% on the market; 30 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 130% on the market, 30 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Gambling
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $836 → $16k → $1.3k (still earning) → $2.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Gambling: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $836 (exactly $836)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,071)
Top 5% $3.4M (exactly $3,386,506)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 31
Announced 30
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 130% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Gambling
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 6,478 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $3.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Coin Game $19.99 5,647 92% 169k $3.4M (exactly $3,386,506) devotid
Tharsis older $14.99 1,438 71% 43k $647k (exactly $646,669) Choice Provisions
硬币与仙人掌 (Coins & Wishpalm) $13.99 343 77% 10k $144k (exactly $143,957) Moshow Games
Metro Sim Hustle older $9.99 352 75% 11k $105k (exactly $105,494) Departure Interactive
Cut That Wire $6.99 243 84% 7.3k $51k (exactly $50,957) WakaStudio
ColdRidge $9.99 97 73% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Frog Collective
It's time, Your Majesty $6.99 77 64% 2.3k $16k (exactly $16,147) String studio
Survive In Russia older $5.99 50 62% 1.5k $9.0k (exactly $8,985) Alexander Sablin
Desperate Gambling · EA $10.99 13 84% 390 $4.3k (exactly $4,286) Gaetha
Roulette Heist $6.99 18 94% 540 $3.8k (exactly $3,775) DreamArk Lab
Casino Casualty $7.99 12 91% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) GlitchedLizard
High Stakes: Hot Nights $2.99 25 72% 750 $2.2k (exactly $2,242) Momentum Games
Slot or Die $13.99 3 33% 90 $1.3k (exactly $1,259) cr0cq

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.