Do I ship it?

Games › Gambling › Gambling + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Gambling game?

Gambling + Fantasy

Of 36 developers who shipped a Fantasy Gambling game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×2.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $880k, ×1873 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 52 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 52 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Gambling + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $5.7k → $137k → $19k → $4.5k → $209 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Gambling + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,564)
Top 5% $890k (exactly $889,766)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 71
Announced 52
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 250% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Gambling; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Strategy, Card Game
Price point
$6.00 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $6.00.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 9,896 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $880k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Gambling with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds11 devs · median $5.7k · 9 announced
  2. + Dungeon CrawlerFair16 devs · median $7.0k · 17 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair16 devs · median $5.7k · 12 announced
  4. + Online Co-OpFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Co-opFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 32 announced
  6. + FPSFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  7. + Life SimFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  8. + SandboxFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  10. + Multiple EndingsFair30 devs · median $1.8k · 42 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair96 devs · median $1.3k · 129 announced
  12. + MysteryFair23 devs · median $1.2k · 26 announced

All 71 pairs on the Gambling page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sol Cesto 2026 · $2.0M Dungeons & Degenerate Gamblers 2024 · $1.3M Fortune Mill 2026 · $890k 硬币与仙人掌 (Coins & Wishpalm) 2025 · $144k Spin Hero 2024 · $137k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)
Dungeons & Degenerate Gamblers older $14.99 2,988 81% 90k $1.3M (exactly $1,343,704) Purple Moss Collectors
Fortune Mill $7.99 3,712 81% 111k $890k (exactly $889,766) Lavaflame2
硬币与仙人掌 (Coins & Wishpalm) $13.99 343 77% 10k $144k (exactly $143,957) Moshow Games
Spin Hero $7.99 573 73% 17k $137k (exactly $137,348) Sphere Studios
LuckLand older $8.99 422 95% 13k $114k (exactly $113,813) e-Jade
Spinny Dungeon $9.99 92 91% 2.8k $28k (exactly $27,572) Typing Monkey
Lust Poker Club $7.99 89 78% 2.7k $21k (exactly $21,333) Cutie Booty
GABANG: ULTIMATE $9.99 62 90% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,581) MOL?ASTUDIO
Only False · EA $5.99 82 92% 2.5k $15k (exactly $14,735) Metavision Studio
Chasing the Dawn / CTD $8.99 54 98% 1.6k $15k (exactly $14,564) Wave Games
Who Trained the Hero? -Spin of Fate- $8.99 51 60% 1.5k $14k (exactly $13,755) Game Studio Inc., KADOKAWA

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.