Do I ship it?

Games › Immersive Sim › Immersive Sim + Gambling

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gambling Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Gambling

Of 33 developers who shipped a Gambling Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×165 the market median. Revenue is up 500% on the market; 40 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 500% on the market, 40 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Gambling
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $599 → $478 → $299 → $3.8k → $1.2k (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Gambling: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $7.8k (exactly $7,794)
Top 5% $247k (exactly $247,070)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 65
Announced 40
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 500% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Gambling; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Life Sim
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 29,209 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $300, 1 in 4 over $7.7k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

NBA 2K25 2024 · $65M NBA 2K26 2025 · $54M NBA 2K27 2026 · $3.6M Drug Lord Tycoon 2024 · EA · $501k Ultimate Theater Simulator 2025 · $247k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NBA 2K25 older $69.99 30,969 60% 929k $65M (exactly $65,025,609) Visual Concepts
NBA 2K26 $69.99 25,651 66% 770k $54M (exactly $53,859,405) Visual Concepts
NBA 2K27 $69.99 1,698 53% 51k $3.6M (exactly $3,565,291) Visual Concepts
Drug Lord Tycoon · EA older $9.99 1,671 83% 50k $501k (exactly $500,799) Duhndal
Ultimate Theater Simulator $12.99 634 88% 19k $247k (exactly $247,070) RAKTWO Games, steelbox Games
Exotica: Petshop Simulator older $7.99 482 81% 14k $116k (exactly $115,535) Konrul Game
Bowling Alley Simulator $14.99 251 90% 7.5k $113k (exactly $112,875) Vulcron
Midnight Mahjong older $6.99 227 64% 6.8k $48k (exactly $47,602) AleCubicSoft
Casino Island Simulator · EA $8.99 120 61% 3.6k $32k (exactly $32,364) Clap Games
Casino Simulator 2024 $5.99 119 69% 3.6k $21k (exactly $21,384) METAGAR
ENCOUNTER BAR $0.99 590 78% 18k $18k (exactly $17,523) 2R
Smoke & Lottery Simulator $9.99 57 85% 1.7k $17k (exactly $17,083) EdenStudio
Casino Boss Simulator $4.99 69 56% 2.1k $10k (exactly $10,329) Nons Games
Casino Management Simulator · EA $12.99 20 60% 600 $7.8k (exactly $7,794) BroxStudios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.