Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Gambling

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Gambling game?

Collectathon + Gambling

Only 16 developers shipped a Collectathon Gambling game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Click the Button, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.2k, ×11 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $460k, ×970 the market median. Revenue is up 95% on the market; 21 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 95% on the market, 21 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Gambling
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.2k → $599 (still earning) → $8.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Gambling: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,256)
Median $5.2k (exactly $5,211)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,136)
Top 5% $461k (exactly $460,725)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 33
Announced 21
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 95% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 33%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon, Gambling; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Idler
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 4,987 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.3k, median $5.2k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $460k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.3k. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Click the Button $3.99 3,849 93% 115k $461k (exactly $460,725) LoopCap
硬币与仙人掌 (Coins & Wishpalm) $13.99 343 77% 10k $144k (exactly $143,957) Moshow Games
Scratchers $2.99 575 57% 17k $52k (exactly $51,578) muffler
Sunshine Shuffle older $9.99 156 76% 4.7k $47k (exactly $46,753) Strange Scaffold
I Can't Believe It's Not Gambling older $0.99 1,542 91% 46k $46k (exactly $45,797) Mutant Entertainment Studios
DOLLMAKER $8.99 45 97% 1.4k $12k (exactly $12,136) STH
Knock on Fate:The Guardian Pusher $5.99 58 87% 1.7k $10k (exactly $10,423) 刚正面的红领巾
Ore & Odds $5.99 47 80% 1.4k $8.4k (exactly $8,446) Funflower Studio
Isekai Mage Girl Gacha Pull Simulator: Elemental Card Collection $6.99 27 74% 810 $5.7k (exactly $5,662) Violet Soft
Funfair Billionaire $5.99 29 82% 870 $5.2k (exactly $5,211) Yunogames
The Ultimate Collector · EA $8.99 7 42% 210 $1.9k (exactly $1,888) StariStudios
Pocket Dinos · EA $7.99 7 100% 210 $1.7k (exactly $1,678) Diesel Laws

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.