Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based › Turn-Based + Gambling

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gambling Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Gambling

Only 11 developers shipped a Gambling Turn-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sol Cesto, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $28k, ×44 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $11k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×3233 the market median. Revenue is up 48910% on the market; 25 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 43.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 48910% on the market, 25 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Gambling
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Turn-Based + Gambling: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $10k (exactly $10,490)
Median $28k (exactly $27,572)
Top 25% $232k (exactly $232,020)
Top 5% $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 26
Announced 25
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 48910% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based, Gambling
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 6,790 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $11k, median $28k, 1 in 4 over $230k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $11k. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sol Cesto 2026 · $2.0M Dungeons & Degenerate Gamblers 2024 · $1.3M Tharsis 2016 · $647k Bingle Bingle 2026 · $300k Insider Trading 2026 · $232k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)
Dungeons & Degenerate Gamblers older $14.99 2,988 81% 90k $1.3M (exactly $1,343,704) Purple Moss Collectors
Tharsis older $14.99 1,438 71% 43k $647k (exactly $646,669) Choice Provisions
Bingle Bingle $14.99 666 80% 20k $300k (exactly $299,500) Knitting Games
Insider Trading $12.89 600 79% 18k $232k (exactly $232,020) Naiive
Fhtagn Simulator older $7.99 535 89% 16k $128k (exactly $128,240) 锁眼工作室
Dicealot $14.99 218 78% 6.5k $98k (exactly $98,035) goodviewgames
RogueJack21 $11.99 196 67% 5.9k $71k (exactly $70,501) Zandbox Studio
Lucky Hero older $10.99 88 80% 2.6k $29k (exactly $29,014) mora churrasco studio
Spinny Dungeon $9.99 92 91% 2.8k $28k (exactly $27,572) Typing Monkey
Slot or Not $6.99 131 89% 3.9k $27k (exactly $27,471) MakoTeam
Ribbit Rogue $9.99 35 91% 1.1k $10k (exactly $10,490) King Krab Games
Death and Ladders $4.99 12 100% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Lema Games
Roulette Pro Simulator · EA $5.99 2 0% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Hard Shark Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.