Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Colony Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Colony Sim?

Colony Sim

Of 471 developers who shipped a Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,066 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.0k, ×8.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $2.8M, ×4587 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,066 games are announced against 297 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.0 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 1,066 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 471
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $36k → $14k → $18k → $10k → $7.8k → $4.0k → $12k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 471
Bottom 30% $897 (exactly $897)
Median $5.0k (exactly $5,027)
Top 25% $91k (exactly $91,154)
Top 5% $2.9M (exactly $2,880,839)
Developers, 2 yr 471
Released games 1,175
Announced 1,066
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 183,597 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $5.0k, 1 in 4 over $91k, 1 in 20 over $2.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 6 in 10 of the 198 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,066 games are announced against 297 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Colony Sim

94 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Colony Sim + Female Protagonist Fair $4.6k 7 devs
  2. Colony Sim + Arcade Long shot $359 13 devs
  3. 4X + Colony Sim Poor odds $314k 23 devs
  4. Open World Survival Craft + Colony Sim Poor odds $170k 11 devs
  5. Co-op + Colony Sim Poor odds $73k 13 devs
  6. Real-Time with Pause + Colony Sim Poor odds $73k 11 devs
  7. Colony Sim + Historical Poor odds $59k 42 devs
  8. Colony Sim + Alternate History Poor odds $59k 16 devs
  9. Open World + Colony Sim Poor odds $58k 78 devs
  10. Action RPG + Colony Sim Poor odds $58k 11 devs
  11. Colony Sim + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $54k 48 devs
  12. Colony Sim + Mars Poor odds $50k 13 devs
  13. Colony Sim + Tactical RPG Poor odds $41k 16 devs
  14. Colony Sim + Sandbox Poor odds $40k 183 devs
  15. Colony Sim + Diplomacy Poor odds $39k 19 devs
  16. Colony Sim + Survival Poor odds $36k 161 devs
  17. Colony Sim + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $33k 17 devs
  18. Colony Sim + Physics Poor odds $33k 19 devs
  19. RTS + Colony Sim Poor odds $31k 87 devs
  20. Colony Sim + Science Poor odds $27k 21 devs
  21. Colony Sim + Zombies Poor odds $26k 16 devs
  22. Colony Sim + Base Building Poor odds $24k 276 devs
  23. Grand Strategy + Colony Sim Poor odds $24k 22 devs
  24. Character Customization + Colony Sim Poor odds $21k 41 devs
  25. Colony Sim + Military Poor odds $21k 18 devs
  26. Colony Sim + Exploration Poor odds $18k 143 devs
  27. Colony Sim + Artificial Intelligence Poor odds $16k 19 devs
  28. Colony Sim + RPG Poor odds $16k 67 devs
  29. Colony Sim + Wargame Poor odds $16k 24 devs
  30. Colony Sim + Management Poor odds $15k 287 devs
  31. Colony Sim + Procedural Generation Poor odds $15k 82 devs
  32. Colony Sim + Strategy RPG Poor odds $15k 28 devs
  33. Colony Sim + Building Poor odds $14k 284 devs
  34. Colony Sim + Resource Management Poor odds $13k 270 devs
  35. Automation + Colony Sim Poor odds $13k 103 devs
  36. Colony Sim + Tower Defense Poor odds $12k 54 devs
  37. Colony Sim + Roguelite Poor odds $12k 35 devs
  38. City Builder + Colony Sim Poor odds $9.6k 239 devs
  39. Colony Sim + Roguelike Poor odds $9.6k 35 devs
  40. Colony Sim + Farming Sim Poor odds $9.4k 49 devs
  41. Colony Sim + Political Sim Poor odds $9.4k 21 devs
  42. Colony Sim + Mining Poor odds $9.4k 27 devs
  43. Colony Sim + Economy Poor odds $8.7k 172 devs
  44. Colony Sim + Crafting Poor odds $8.4k 101 devs
  45. Colony Sim + Choices Matter Poor odds $8.2k 65 devs
  46. Colony Sim + Multiple Endings Poor odds $8.2k 18 devs
  47. Colony Sim + Simulation Poor odds $7.8k 354 devs
  48. Colony Sim + Agriculture Poor odds $7.8k 33 devs
  49. PvP + Colony Sim Poor odds $7.5k 7 devs
  50. Action-Adventure + Colony Sim Poor odds $7.2k 19 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

RimWorld 2018 · $219M Frostpunk 2018 · $103M Oxygen Not Included 2019 · $101M Manor Lords 2024 · EA · $92M Cult of the Lamb 2022 · $84M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
RimWorld older $34.99 208,693 97% 6.3M $219M (exactly $219,065,042) Ludeon Studios
Frostpunk older $29.99 114,376 92% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,904,087) 11 bit studios
Oxygen Not Included older $24.99 135,337 96% 4.1M $101M (exactly $101,462,149) Klei Entertainment
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
Cult of the Lamb older $24.99 112,096 95% 3.4M $84M (exactly $84,038,371) Massive Monster
Northgard: Definitive Edition older $34.99 54,478 85% 1.6M $57M (exactly $57,185,557) Shiro Games
Prison Architect older $29.99 59,802 89% 1.8M $54M (exactly $53,803,859) Introversion Software, Double Eleven
They Are Billions older $29.99 46,223 85% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,586,833) Numantian Games
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
SPORE™ older $19.99 66,871 92% 2.0M $40M (exactly $40,102,539) Maxis™
Frostpunk 2 $44.99 20,872 74% 626k $28M (exactly $28,170,938) 11 bit studios
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Foundation $34.99 23,037 86% 691k $24M (exactly $24,181,939) Polymorph Games
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
Space Haven $24.99 10,267 85% 308k $7.7M (exactly $7,697,170) Bugbyte Ltd.
StarRupture · EA $19.99 12,333 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,100) Creepy Jar
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.