Do I ship it?

Games › Grand Strategy › Grand Strategy + Colony Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Colony Sim Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Colony Sim

Of 22 developers who shipped a Colony Sim Grand Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $24k, ×16 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.5M, ×2342 the market median. Revenue is up 835% on the market; 58 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 835% on the market, 58 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Colony Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.9k → $229k → $16M → $1.0M → $4.6k → $9.0k → $26k (still earning) → $61k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Colony Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Median $24k (exactly $23,747)
Top 25% $314k (exactly $314,048)
Top 5% $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 74
Announced 58
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 835% on the market, supply 240% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy, Colony Sim; all of the top 25% also carry 4X, Base Building, Building
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 15,126 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.0k, median $24k, 1 in 4 over $310k, 1 in 20 over $3.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 58 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Manor Lords 2024 · EA · $92M Against the Storm 2023 · $30M Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic 2024 · $30M Empires of the Undergrowth 2024 · $16M Norland 2024 · EA · $8.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
Against the Storm older $29.99 33,271 94% 998k $30M (exactly $29,933,919) Eremite Games
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic older $39.99 24,825 91% 745k $30M (exactly $29,782,552) 3Division
Empires of the Undergrowth older $29.99 17,483 94% 524k $16M (exactly $15,729,455) Slug Disco
Norland · EA older $29.99 8,906 81% 267k $8.0M (exactly $8,012,728) Long Jaunt
Songs of Syx · EA older $24.99 8,842 94% 265k $6.6M (exactly $6,628,847) Gamatron AB
Corsair Cove $39.99 3,026 85% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Limbic Entertainment
Cataclismo $29.99 3,899 88% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) Digital Sun
Whiskerwood · EA $29.99 3,221 92% 97k $2.9M (exactly $2,897,934) Minakata Dynamics
Nova Roma · EA $29.99 2,085 93% 63k $1.9M (exactly $1,875,874) Lion Shield
Heart of the Machine $29.99 2,010 91% 60k $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) Arcen Games
Thrive: Heavy Lies The Crown $27.99 374 54% 11k $314k (exactly $314,048) Zugalu Entertainment
Tlatoani: Aztec Cities $19.99 180 83% 5.4k $108k (exactly $107,946) Perspective Games, Bellwood Studios
Repterra $19.99 122 90% 3.7k $73k (exactly $73,163) Chute Apps
Imperial Ambitions $19.99 101 81% 3.0k $61k (exactly $60,570) aoiti
Riftborne · EA $7.99 108 91% 3.2k $26k (exactly $25,888) Pitio Productions

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.