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Should I ship a Diplomacy Colony Sim?
Colony Sim + Diplomacy
Only 19 developers shipped a Diplomacy Colony Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Corsair Cove, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $39k, ×62 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $6.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×5781 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 33 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $6.6k (exactly $6,624) |
|---|---|
| Median | $39k (exactly $38,674) |
| Top 25% | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) |
| Top 5% | $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 19 |
| Released games | 46 |
| Announced | 33 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 435% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Colony Sim
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Diplomacy
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Colony Sim, Diplomacy; all of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Building, City Builder
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 20,430 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $6.7k. 33 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + ArcadeLong shot
- + 4XPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Action RPGPoor odds
- + Post-apocalypticPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
Comparable games
Manor Lords 2024 · EA · $92M 
Against the Storm 2023 · $30M 
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic 2024 · $30M 
Empires of the Undergrowth 2024 · $16M 
Norland 2024 · EA · $8.0M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Manor Lords | · EA older | $39.99 | 76,884 84% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $92,237,735) | Slavic Magic |
| | Against the Storm | older | $29.99 | 33,271 94% | 998k | $30M (exactly $29,933,919) | Eremite Games |
| | Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic | older | $39.99 | 24,825 91% | 745k | $30M (exactly $29,782,552) | 3Division |
| | Empires of the Undergrowth | older | $29.99 | 17,483 94% | 524k | $16M (exactly $15,729,455) | Slug Disco |
| | Norland | · EA older | $29.99 | 8,906 81% | 267k | $8.0M (exactly $8,012,728) | Long Jaunt |
 | Fabledom | older | $20.99 | 6,772 85% | 203k | $4.3M (exactly $4,264,328) | Grenaa Games |
 | Corsair Cove | $39.99 | 3,026 85% | 91k | $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) | Limbic Entertainment | |
 | Cataclismo | $29.99 | 3,899 88% | 117k | $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) | Digital Sun | |
 | Pharaoh™: A New Era | older | $22.99 | 4,811 75% | 144k | $3.3M (exactly $3,318,147) | Triskell Interactive |
 | Whiskerwood | · EA | $29.99 | 3,221 92% | 97k | $2.9M (exactly $2,897,934) | Minakata Dynamics |
 | Surviving Mars: Relaunched | $39.99 | 2,202 55% | 66k | $2.6M (exactly $2,641,739) | Haemimont Games | |
 | Eastern Era | $24.99 | 3,028 65% | 91k | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) | FunYoo Games | |
 | Nova Roma | · EA | $29.99 | 2,085 93% | 63k | $1.9M (exactly $1,875,874) | Lion Shield |
 | Heart of the Machine | $29.99 | 2,010 91% | 60k | $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) | Arcen Games | |
 | Synergy | $24.99 | 693 79% | 21k | $520k (exactly $519,542) | Leikir Studio | |
 | Tlatoani: Aztec Cities | $19.99 | 180 83% | 5.4k | $108k (exactly $107,946) | Perspective Games, Bellwood Studios | |
 | Lunar Ascendant | $14.99 | 86 44% | 2.6k | $39k (exactly $38,674) | Darts Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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