Do I ship it?

GamesCo-opCo-op + Colony Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Co-op Colony Sim?

Co-op + Colony Sim

Only 13 developers shipped a Co-op Colony Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Soulmask, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 54 more are announced, ×6.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $73k, ×49 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $16M, ×11078 the market median. Revenue is up 32055% on the market; 54 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 49.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 32055% on the market, 54 announced, ×6.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Co-op + Colony Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $70k → $235k → $118k → $7.4M (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Co-op + Colony Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $73k (exactly $73,379)
Top 25% $5.0M (exactly $5,032,262)
Top 5% $17M (exactly $16,594,966)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 48
Announced 54
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 32050% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Co-op
effort 7 / 10 · low · co-op on Steam means online sessions and drop-in sync
Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Co-op, Colony Sim
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 45,338 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $73k, 1 in 4 over $5.0M, 1 in 20 over $16M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 54 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Co-op with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroFair9 devs · median $11k · 17 announced
  2. + Boomer ShooterFair16 devs · median $6.9k · 24 announced
  3. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 32 announced
  4. + NinjaFair13 devs · median $4.2k · 13 announced
  5. + TypingLong shot16 devs · median $810 · 13 announced
  6. + Word GameLong shot23 devs · median $267 · 23 announced
  7. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds12 devs · median $372k · 23 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds48 devs · median $369k · 110 announced
  10. + TransportationPoor odds17 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds15 devs · median $164k · 19 announced
  12. + Turn-BasedPoor odds12 devs · median $131k · 19 announced

All 230 pairs on the Co-op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Northgard: Definitive Edition older $34.99 54,478 85% 1.6M $57M (exactly $57,185,557) Shiro Games
Kingdom Two Crowns older $19.99 31,259 90% 938k $19M (exactly $18,746,022) Fury Studios, Coatsink
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Dawn of Man older $24.99 17,094 86% 513k $13M (exactly $12,815,372) Madruga Works
Farm Together older $19.99 17,647 93% 529k $11M (exactly $10,582,906) Milkstone Studios
Stationeers · EA older $34.99 8,597 88% 258k $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) RocketWerkz
ASKA · EA older $24.99 10,457 79% 314k $7.8M (exactly $7,839,613) Sand Sailor Studio
StarRupture · EA $19.99 12,333 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,100) Creepy Jar
Colony Survival · EA older $24.95 8,260 92% 248k $6.2M (exactly $6,182,610) Pipliz
Sengoku Dynasty $29.99 6,592 74% 198k $5.9M (exactly $5,930,822) Superkami
Pioneers of Pagonia $34.99 4,794 81% 144k $5.0M (exactly $5,032,262) Envision Entertainment
Eden Crafters $19.99 2,507 85% 75k $1.5M (exactly $1,503,448) Osaris Games
Fera: The Sundered Tribes · EA $9.99 394 57% 12k $118k (exactly $118,082) Massive Damage, Inc.
Outlive 25 $11.99 204 93% 6.1k $73k (exactly $73,379) Continuum Entertainment
Lugal: Bronze Age Survival Game · EA $14.99 35 71% 1.1k $16k (exactly $15,740) Tea & Cake Games
Shop Life Simulator · EA $9.99 28 50% 840 $8.4k (exactly $8,392) AIONWARE LTD
Village Coop Clicker $4.99 6 50% 180 $898 (exactly $898) DoMi Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.