Do I ship it?

Games › Colony Sim › Colony Sim + RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Colony Sim RPG?

Colony Sim + RPG

Of 67 developers who shipped a Colony Sim RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 149 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $16k, ×25 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $990; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×3495 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 149 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 25.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 149 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 67
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $135k → $551k → $18k → $50k → $24k → $5.7k (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 67
Bottom 30% $987 (exactly $987)
Median $16k (exactly $15,740)
Top 25% $166k (exactly $165,688)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686)
Developers, 2 yr 67
Released games 187
Announced 149
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, RPG; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, City Builder, Simulation
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 38,600 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $990, median $16k, 1 in 4 over $160k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $990. 5 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 149 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Going Medieval 2026 · $15M Amazing Cultivation Simulator 2020 · $14M Craft The World 2014 · $8.6M Stonehearth 2018 · $6.4M 下一站江湖Ⅱ 2024 · $6.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Amazing Cultivation Simulator older $24.99 19,111 85% 573k $14M (exactly $14,327,517) GSQ Games
Craft The World older $18.99 15,074 88% 452k $8.6M (exactly $8,587,658) Dekovir Entertainment, Sibear Games
Stonehearth older $19.99 10,652 76% 320k $6.4M (exactly $6,388,004) Radiant Entertainment
下一站江湖Ⅱ older $24.99 8,507 72% 255k $6.4M (exactly $6,377,698) 白玉京工作室
Sengoku Dynasty $29.99 6,592 74% 198k $5.9M (exactly $5,930,822) Superkami
Clanfolk · EA older $29.99 3,779 91% 113k $3.4M (exactly $3,399,966) MinMax Games Ltd.
CryoFall older $19.99 4,905 78% 147k $2.9M (exactly $2,941,528) AtomicTorch Studio
Cartel Tycoon older $29.99 2,822 75% 85k $2.5M (exactly $2,538,953) Moon Moose
Eastern Era $24.99 3,028 65% 91k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) FunYoo Games
Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim $24.90 2,938 77% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) Rockbee Team
Survivalist: Invisible Strain $11.99 4,014 87% 120k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) Bob
Dungeon Settlers · EA $24.99 1,117 79% 34k $837k (exactly $837,415) CanOpener
Airborne Empire $29.99 852 86% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) The Wandering Band LLC
Gold Gold Adventure Gold $24.99 907 70% 27k $680k (exactly $679,978) Can Can Can a Man
Anomaly President · EA $14.99 1,376 91% 41k $619k (exactly $618,787) Phew Phew Games
Noble Legacy · EA $24.99 744 70% 22k $558k (exactly $557,777) Ultimus Rex LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.