Do I ship it?

Games › Colony Sim › Colony Sim + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Historical

Of 42 developers who shipped a Historical Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 75 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $59k, ×95 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $9.8M, ×15622 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 75 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 94.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 75 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $184k → $67k → $8.0M → $4.5k → $2.9M → $59k (still earning) → $16k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $1.9k (exactly $1,915)
Median $59k (exactly $59,370)
Top 25% $1.7M (exactly $1,681,920)
Top 5% $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 119
Announced 75
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, City Builder, Resource Management
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $32.00 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $32.00 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 83,840 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.0k, median $59k, 1 in 4 over $1.6M, 1 in 20 over $9.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 5 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 75 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  8. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  9. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced
  12. + Tactical RPGPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Manor Lords 2024 · EA · $92M Against the Storm 2023 · $30M Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic 2024 · $30M Farthest Frontier 2025 · $26M Banished 2014 · $23M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
Against the Storm older $29.99 33,271 94% 998k $30M (exactly $29,933,919) Eremite Games
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic older $39.99 24,825 91% 745k $30M (exactly $29,782,552) 3Division
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Banished older $19.99 37,895 90% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,725,632) Shining Rock Software LLC
Kingdoms and Castles older $19.99 30,311 93% 909k $18M (exactly $18,177,507) Lion Shield, LLC
Empires of the Undergrowth older $29.99 17,483 94% 524k $16M (exactly $15,729,455) Slug Disco
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Dawn of Man older $24.99 17,094 86% 513k $13M (exactly $12,815,372) Madruga Works
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition $19.99 10,627 92% 319k $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) Firefly Studios
Sengoku Dynasty $29.99 6,592 74% 198k $5.9M (exactly $5,930,822) Superkami
Corsair Cove $39.99 3,026 85% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Limbic Entertainment
Cataclismo $29.99 3,899 88% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) Digital Sun
Whiskerwood · EA $29.99 3,221 92% 97k $2.9M (exactly $2,897,934) Minakata Dynamics
Nova Roma · EA $29.99 2,085 93% 63k $1.9M (exactly $1,875,874) Lion Shield
Heart of the Machine $29.99 2,010 91% 60k $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) Arcen Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.