Do I ship it?

GamesColony SimColony Sim + Sandbox

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Colony Sim Sandbox?

Colony Sim + Sandbox

Of 183 developers who shipped a Colony Sim Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 378 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $40k, ×63 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×5781 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 378 games are announced against 107 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 63.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 378 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Sandbox
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 183
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $36k → $6.0k → $40k → $41k → $73k → $92k → $108k (still earning) → $4.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Sandbox: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 183
Bottom 30% $4.5k (exactly $4,497)
Median $40k (exactly $39,734)
Top 25% $332k (exactly $331,879)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292)
Developers, 2 yr 183
Released games 451
Announced 378
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, Sandbox; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 146,440 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.5k, median $40k, 1 in 4 over $330k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.5k. 4 in 10 of the 81 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 378 games are announced against 107 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
RimWorld older $34.99 208,693 97% 6.3M $219M (exactly $219,065,042) Ludeon Studios
Oxygen Not Included older $24.99 135,337 96% 4.1M $101M (exactly $101,462,149) Klei Entertainment
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
Prison Architect older $29.99 59,802 89% 1.8M $54M (exactly $53,803,859) Introversion Software, Double Eleven
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
SPORE™ older $19.99 66,871 92% 2.0M $40M (exactly $40,102,539) Maxis™
WorldBox - God Simulator · EA older $19.99 51,071 95% 1.5M $31M (exactly $30,627,279) Maxim Karpenko
Against the Storm older $29.99 33,271 94% 998k $30M (exactly $29,933,919) Eremite Games
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic older $39.99 24,825 91% 745k $30M (exactly $29,782,552) 3Division
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
Foundation $34.99 23,037 86% 691k $24M (exactly $24,181,939) Polymorph Games
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Space Haven $24.99 10,267 85% 308k $7.7M (exactly $7,697,170) Bugbyte Ltd.
StarRupture · EA $19.99 12,333 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,100) Creepy Jar
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition $19.99 10,627 92% 319k $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) Firefly Studios
Railroads Online $29.99 5,410 75% 162k $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) Stefan Kelnberger
Corsair Cove $39.99 3,026 85% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Limbic Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.