Do I ship it?

GamesAutomationAutomation + Colony Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Colony Sim Automation game?

Automation + Colony Sim

Of 103 developers who shipped a Colony Sim Automation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 203 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $13k, ×20 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×5143 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 203 games are announced against 73 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 20.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 203 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automation + Colony Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 103
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $35k → $44k → $28k → $36k → $41k → $2.4k → $48k (still earning) → $5.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Automation + Colony Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 103
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,156)
Median $13k (exactly $12,592)
Top 25% $150k (exactly $149,833)
Top 5% $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708)
Developers, 2 yr 103
Released games 167
Announced 203
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automation
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Automation, Colony Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Resource Management, Sandbox
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 96,483 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.2k, median $13k, 1 in 4 over $140k, 1 in 20 over $3.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.2k. 5 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 203 games are announced against 73 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds36 devs · median $57k · 31 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistStrong odds27 devs · median $4.5k · 32 announced
  3. + Open World Survival CraftFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  4. + HorrorFair19 devs · median $8.0k · 29 announced
  5. + HistoricalFair26 devs · median $7.9k · 24 announced
  6. + UndergroundFair20 devs · median $7.4k · 32 announced
  7. + Class-BasedFair19 devs · median $6.6k · 22 announced
  8. + MiningFair105 devs · median $4.9k · 164 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair112 devs · median $4.5k · 153 announced
  10. + ProgrammingFair84 devs · median $3.8k · 102 announced
  11. + FishingFair40 devs · median $3.4k · 46 announced
  12. + Turn-Based TacticsFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced

All 135 pairs on the Automation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Captain of Industry · EA older $34.99 11,027 90% 331k $12M (exactly $11,575,042) MaFi Games
Stationeers · EA older $34.99 8,597 88% 258k $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) RocketWerkz
ASKA · EA older $24.99 10,457 79% 314k $7.8M (exactly $7,839,613) Sand Sailor Studio
StarRupture · EA $19.99 12,333 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,100) Creepy Jar
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Per Aspera older $29.99 4,105 76% 123k $3.7M (exactly $3,693,268) Tlön Industries
The Crust $31.99 3,502 76% 105k $3.4M (exactly $3,360,869) VEOM Studio
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games
Pax Autocratica · EA $29.99 3,202 91% 96k $2.9M (exactly $2,880,839) Multiverse
Plan B: Terraform $15.99 3,526 91% 106k $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) Gaddy Games
Eden Crafters $19.99 2,507 85% 75k $1.5M (exactly $1,503,448) Osaris Games
Astro Colony $19.99 2,397 80% 72k $1.4M (exactly $1,437,481) Terad Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.