Do I ship it?

GamesColony SimColony Sim + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Artificial Intelligence

Only 19 developers shipped an AI Colony Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Celestial Empire, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $16k, ×26 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $8.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×677 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 33 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 25.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 33 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $131k → $360k → $119k → $16k (still earning) → $8.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $8.7k (exactly $8,700)
Median $16k (exactly $16,060)
Top 25% $119k (exactly $118,770)
Top 5% $425k (exactly $425,187)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 35
Announced 33
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Resource Management
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 3,542 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $8.7k, median $16k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $8.7k. 6 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WorldBox - God Simulator · EA older $19.99 51,071 95% 1.5M $31M (exactly $30,627,279) Maxim Karpenko
Screeps: World older $19.99 1,934 86% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,159,820) Screeps, LLC
Fantasy Map Simulator · EA older $7.99 4,190 89% 126k $1.0M (exactly $1,004,343) The Stranger
Ruinarch older $24.99 1,336 62% 40k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,599) Maccima Games LLC
Celestial Empire · EA $19.99 709 89% 21k $425k (exactly $425,187) President Studio
Starmancer · EA older $14.99 891 61% 27k $401k (exactly $400,683) Ominux Games
Deisim older $14.99 873 93% 26k $393k (exactly $392,588) Myron Games
Ecosystem $19.99 601 76% 18k $360k (exactly $360,420) Tom Johnson
Planetary Life · EA $11.99 912 94% 27k $328k (exactly $328,046) Sotenbox
Settlements Rising $18.99 416 80% 12k $237k (exactly $236,995) The Catalyst Crew
SeaCret 1 · EA $39.99 99 61% 3.0k $119k (exactly $118,770) Dalas
Pandora's Toybox $9.99 372 83% 11k $111k (exactly $111,488) BetaLab
ANLIFE: Motion-Learning Life Evolution $13.99 161 83% 4.8k $68k (exactly $67,572) Attructure Inc.
Machinefall $14.99 119 82% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) by Jan Zizka
Lunar Ascendant $14.99 86 44% 2.6k $39k (exactly $38,674) Darts Games
Secret Sexy Streamer $7.99 67 88% 2.0k $16k (exactly $16,060) Fantasy Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.