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Should I ship an AI Colony Sim?
Colony Sim + Artificial Intelligence
Only 19 developers shipped an AI Colony Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Celestial Empire, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $16k, ×26 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $8.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×677 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 33 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $8.7k (exactly $8,700) |
|---|---|
| Median | $16k (exactly $16,060) |
| Top 25% | $119k (exactly $118,770) |
| Top 5% | $425k (exactly $425,187) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 19 |
| Released games | 35 |
| Announced | 33 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Colony Sim
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Artificial Intelligence
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Colony Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Resource Management
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 3,542 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $8.7k. 6 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Colony Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + ArcadeLong shot
- + 4XPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Action RPGPoor odds
- + Post-apocalypticPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | WorldBox - God Simulator | · EA older | $19.99 | 51,071 95% | 1.5M | $31M (exactly $30,627,279) | Maxim Karpenko |
| | Screeps: World | older | $19.99 | 1,934 86% | 58k | $1.2M (exactly $1,159,820) | Screeps, LLC |
| | Fantasy Map Simulator | · EA older | $7.99 | 4,190 89% | 126k | $1.0M (exactly $1,004,343) | The Stranger |
| | Ruinarch | older | $24.99 | 1,336 62% | 40k | $1.0M (exactly $1,001,599) | Maccima Games LLC |
| | Celestial Empire | · EA | $19.99 | 709 89% | 21k | $425k (exactly $425,187) | President Studio |
| | Starmancer | · EA older | $14.99 | 891 61% | 27k | $401k (exactly $400,683) | Ominux Games |
| | Deisim | older | $14.99 | 873 93% | 26k | $393k (exactly $392,588) | Myron Games |
| | Ecosystem | $19.99 | 601 76% | 18k | $360k (exactly $360,420) | Tom Johnson | |
| | Planetary Life | · EA | $11.99 | 912 94% | 27k | $328k (exactly $328,046) | Sotenbox |
| | Settlements Rising | $18.99 | 416 80% | 12k | $237k (exactly $236,995) | The Catalyst Crew | |
| | SeaCret 1 | · EA | $39.99 | 99 61% | 3.0k | $119k (exactly $118,770) | Dalas |
| | Pandora's Toybox | $9.99 | 372 83% | 11k | $111k (exactly $111,488) | BetaLab | |
| | ANLIFE: Motion-Learning Life Evolution | $13.99 | 161 83% | 4.8k | $68k (exactly $67,572) | Attructure Inc. | |
| | Machinefall | $14.99 | 119 82% | 3.6k | $54k (exactly $53,514) | by Jan Zizka | |
| | Lunar Ascendant | $14.99 | 86 44% | 2.6k | $39k (exactly $38,674) | Darts Games | |
| | Secret Sexy Streamer | $7.99 | 67 88% | 2.0k | $16k (exactly $16,060) | Fantasy Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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