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Should I ship a Tactical RPG Colony Sim?
Colony Sim + Tactical RPG
Only 16 developers shipped a Tactical RPG Colony Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mind Over Magic, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $41k, ×65 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×5150 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 29 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) |
|---|---|
| Median | $41k (exactly $40,923) |
| Top 25% | $166k (exactly $165,688) |
| Top 5% | $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 16 |
| Released games | 37 |
| Announced | 29 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Colony Sim
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Tactical RPG
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Colony Sim, Tactical RPG
- Price point
- $14.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 6,696 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + ArcadeLong shot
- + 4XPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Action RPGPoor odds
- + Post-apocalypticPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
Comparable games
RimWorld 2018 · $219M 
Mind Over Magic 2025 · $3.2M 
Dungeon Settlers 2026 · EA · $837k 
Thrive: Heavy Lies The Crown 2025 · $314k 
TFM: The First Men 2022 · EA · $279k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | RimWorld | older | $34.99 | 208,693 97% | 6.3M | $219M (exactly $219,065,042) | Ludeon Studios |
| | Mind Over Magic | $24.99 | 4,314 86% | 129k | $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) | Sparkypants | |
| | Dungeon Settlers | · EA | $24.99 | 1,117 79% | 34k | $837k (exactly $837,415) | CanOpener |
| | Thrive: Heavy Lies The Crown | $27.99 | 374 54% | 11k | $314k (exactly $314,048) | Zugalu Entertainment | |
| | TFM: The First Men | · EA older | $24.99 | 372 55% | 11k | $279k (exactly $278,888) | Gathering Tree |
 | This Grand Life 2 | $17.99 | 307 88% | 9.2k | $166k (exactly $165,688) | Poking Water Games | |
 | Ninja Village | older | $8.99 | 546 93% | 16k | $147k (exactly $147,256) | Kairosoft Co.,Ltd |
 | High Sea Saga DX | older | $8.99 | 501 81% | 15k | $135k (exactly $135,120) | Kairosoft Co.,Ltd |
 | Song's Fantasy | $7.99 | 229 55% | 6.9k | $55k (exactly $54,891) | 南十字座工作室 | |
 | Outland Kingdoms | · EA | $24.99 | 72 73% | 2.2k | $54k (exactly $53,978) | GBL |
 | Edge Islands | · EA | $17.99 | 93 74% | 2.8k | $50k (exactly $50,192) | LS Games |
 | Oasis Mission: Colony Sim | $14.99 | 91 56% | 2.7k | $41k (exactly $40,923) | Lunar pug studio | |
 | Rising Army | $11.99 | 57 64% | 1.7k | $21k (exactly $20,503) | Arkbits | |
 | Scarecropia | $9.99 | 42 88% | 1.3k | $13k (exactly $12,587) | JYP Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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