Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Strategy RPG Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Strategy RPG

Of 28 developers who shipped a Strategy RPG Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 64 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $15k, ×23 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $990; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×3495 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 64 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 23.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 64 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Strategy RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $25k → $4.4k → $15k → $4.6k → $48k → $899 (still earning) → $157k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Strategy RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $987 (exactly $987)
Median $15k (exactly $14,671)
Top 25% $55k (exactly $54,891)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 71
Announced 64
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, Strategy RPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Simulation, RPG
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 9,755 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $990, median $15k, 1 in 4 over $54k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $990. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 64 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mind Over Magic 2025 · $3.2M Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim 2025 · $2.2M Sheltered 2 2021 · $1.2M Dungeon Settlers 2026 · EA · $837k First Feudal 2021 · $356k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mind Over Magic $24.99 4,314 86% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) Sparkypants
Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim $24.90 2,938 77% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) Rockbee Team
Sheltered 2 older $19.99 2,015 45% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,208,396) Unicube
Dungeon Settlers · EA $24.99 1,117 79% 34k $837k (exactly $837,415) CanOpener
First Feudal older $19.99 594 75% 18k $356k (exactly $356,222) Harpoon Games
Winter · EA older $29.99 340 73% 10k $306k (exactly $305,898) Frostfall Realms Studios
This Grand Life 2 $17.99 307 88% 9.2k $166k (exactly $165,688) Poking Water Games
Astrobuilder $14.99 350 88% 11k $157k (exactly $157,395) wastudio
Ninja Village older $8.99 546 93% 16k $147k (exactly $147,256) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
High Sea Saga DX older $8.99 501 81% 15k $135k (exactly $135,120) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Ascent of Ashes · EA $14.99 268 68% 8.0k $121k (exactly $120,520) Vivid Storm Interactive
Song's Fantasy $7.99 229 55% 6.9k $55k (exactly $54,891) 南十字座工作室
Outland Kingdoms · EA $24.99 72 73% 2.2k $54k (exactly $53,978) GBL
Dungeons & Kingdoms · EA $19.99 80 40% 2.4k $48k (exactly $47,976) Uncle Grouch Gaming
Project Afterfall · EA $19.99 80 75% 2.4k $48k (exactly $47,976) MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.