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Should I ship a Simulation Colony Sim?
Colony Sim + Simulation
Of 354 developers who shipped a Simulation Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 824 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $7.8k, ×12 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×3615 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 824 games are announced against 220 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.3k (exactly $1,347) |
|---|---|
| Median | $7.8k (exactly $7,796) |
| Top 25% | $114k (exactly $114,083) |
| Top 5% | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 354 |
| Released games | 894 |
| Announced | 824 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Colony Sim
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Colony Sim, Simulation; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Management, Strategy
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 156,129 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 6 in 10 of the 148 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 824 games are announced against 220 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + ArcadeLong shot
- + 4XPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Action RPGPoor odds
- + Post-apocalypticPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
Comparable games
RimWorld 2018 · $219M 
Frostpunk 2018 · $103M 
Oxygen Not Included 2019 · $101M 
Manor Lords 2024 · EA · $92M 
Northgard: Definitive Edition 2018 · $57M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | RimWorld | older | $34.99 | 208,693 97% | 6.3M | $219M (exactly $219,065,042) | Ludeon Studios |
| | Frostpunk | older | $29.99 | 114,376 92% | 3.4M | $103M (exactly $102,904,087) | 11 bit studios |
| | Oxygen Not Included | older | $24.99 | 135,337 96% | 4.1M | $101M (exactly $101,462,149) | Klei Entertainment |
| | Manor Lords | · EA older | $39.99 | 76,884 84% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $92,237,735) | Slavic Magic |
| | Northgard: Definitive Edition | older | $34.99 | 54,478 85% | 1.6M | $57M (exactly $57,185,557) | Shiro Games |
 | Prison Architect | older | $29.99 | 59,802 89% | 1.8M | $54M (exactly $53,803,859) | Introversion Software, Double Eleven |
 | Timberborn | $34.99 | 38,529 95% | 1.2M | $40M (exactly $40,443,891) | Mechanistry | |
 | SPORE™ | older | $19.99 | 66,871 92% | 2.0M | $40M (exactly $40,102,539) | Maxis™ |
 | WorldBox - God Simulator | · EA older | $19.99 | 51,071 95% | 1.5M | $31M (exactly $30,627,279) | Maxim Karpenko |
 | Against the Storm | older | $29.99 | 33,271 94% | 998k | $30M (exactly $29,933,919) | Eremite Games |
 | Frostpunk 2 | $44.99 | 20,872 74% | 626k | $28M (exactly $28,170,938) | 11 bit studios | |
 | Foundation | $34.99 | 23,037 86% | 691k | $24M (exactly $24,181,939) | Polymorph Games | |
 | Going Medieval | $29.99 | 17,032 88% | 511k | $15M (exactly $15,323,690) | Foxy Voxel | |
 | Diplomacy is Not an Option | $29.99 | 10,904 85% | 327k | $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) | Door 407 | |
 | Space Haven | $24.99 | 10,267 85% | 308k | $7.7M (exactly $7,697,170) | Bugbyte Ltd. | |
 | StarRupture | · EA | $19.99 | 12,333 80% | 370k | $7.4M (exactly $7,396,100) | Creepy Jar |
 | The Wandering Village | $29.99 | 7,734 91% | 232k | $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) | Stray Fawn Studio | |
 | Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition | $19.99 | 10,627 92% | 319k | $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) | Firefly Studios | |
 | Pioneers of Pagonia | $34.99 | 4,794 81% | 144k | $5.0M (exactly $5,032,262) | Envision Entertainment |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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