Do I ship it?

Games › Colony Sim › Colony Sim + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelite Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Roguelite

Of 35 developers who shipped a Roguelite Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 102 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×19 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2034 the market median. Revenue is up 300% on the market; 102 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 18.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 300% on the market, 102 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $865k → $80k → $15k → $5.8k → $8.1k → $12k (still earning) → $157k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,157)
Median $12k (exactly $11,692)
Top 25% $158k (exactly $157,941)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,277,361)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 64
Announced 102
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 300% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, Roguelite; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Base Building, City Builder
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 13,194 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.2k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.2k. 7 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 102 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cult of the Lamb 2022 · $84M Against the Storm 2023 · $30M Kingdom: New Lands 2016 · $4.6M Pax Autocratica 2026 · EA · $2.9M Cartel Tycoon 2022 · $2.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cult of the Lamb older $24.99 112,096 95% 3.4M $84M (exactly $84,038,371) Massive Monster
Against the Storm older $29.99 33,271 94% 998k $30M (exactly $29,933,919) Eremite Games
Kingdom: New Lands older $14.99 10,152 86% 305k $4.6M (exactly $4,565,354) Noio
Pax Autocratica · EA $29.99 3,202 91% 96k $2.9M (exactly $2,880,839) Multiverse
Cartel Tycoon older $29.99 2,822 75% 85k $2.5M (exactly $2,538,953) Moon Moose
dotAGE older $17.59 2,560 94% 77k $1.4M (exactly $1,350,912) Michele Pirovano
Drill Core $19.99 2,130 84% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,277,361) Hungry Couch Games
The Lost Village older $11.99 2,743 70% 82k $987k (exactly $986,657) FunYoo Games
Jumplight Odyssey · EA older $29.99 961 58% 29k $865k (exactly $864,612) League of Geeks
After Inc: Revival $17.99 1,480 77% 44k $799k (exactly $798,756) Ndemic Creations
DIVE or DIE - Children of Rain $17.99 1,255 91% 38k $677k (exactly $677,323) Drop Rate Studio
Anomaly President · EA $14.99 1,376 91% 41k $619k (exactly $618,787) Phew Phew Games
Gnomes $9.99 1,757 94% 53k $527k (exactly $526,573) DYSTOPIAN
Here Comes The Swarm · EA $19.99 358 84% 11k $215k (exactly $214,693) CableHook Games
Hole Is Mine $7.99 741 90% 22k $178k (exactly $177,618) Incrementalist
Sinner Maker · EA $9.66 545 91% 16k $158k (exactly $157,941) Pantokrator
Astrobuilder $14.99 350 88% 11k $157k (exactly $157,395) wastudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.