Do I ship it?

GamesColony SimColony Sim + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Roguelike

Of 35 developers who shipped a Roguelike Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.6k, ×15 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2034 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 52 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.3 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 52 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $184k → $161k → $10k → $9.6k → $11k → $2.2k (still earning) → $23k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $9.6k (exactly $9,590)
Top 25% $81k (exactly $80,946)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,277,361)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 67
Announced 52
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, Roguelike; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry City Builder, Base Building, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 14,777 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $9.6k, 1 in 4 over $80k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 6 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Kingdom: New Lands older $14.99 10,152 86% 305k $4.6M (exactly $4,565,354) Noio
Rise to Ruins older $14.99 7,234 87% 217k $3.3M (exactly $3,253,130) Raymond Doerr
dotAGE older $17.59 2,560 94% 77k $1.4M (exactly $1,350,912) Michele Pirovano
Drill Core $19.99 2,130 84% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,277,361) Hungry Couch Games
As Far As The Eye older $24.99 1,640 73% 49k $1.2M (exactly $1,229,508) Unexpected
The Lost Village older $11.99 2,743 70% 82k $987k (exactly $986,657) FunYoo Games
Anomaly President · EA $14.99 1,376 91% 41k $619k (exactly $618,787) Phew Phew Games
Goblin Stone older $24.99 735 52% 22k $551k (exactly $551,030) Orc Chop Games
Gnomes $9.99 1,757 94% 53k $527k (exactly $526,573) DYSTOPIAN
Here Comes The Swarm · EA $19.99 358 84% 11k $215k (exactly $214,693) CableHook Games
Kingdom's Deck $9.99 495 72% 15k $148k (exactly $148,352) Ivan Aco
Pandora's Toybox $9.99 372 83% 11k $111k (exactly $111,488) BetaLab
Kaya's Prophecy $13.99 196 70% 5.9k $82k (exactly $82,261) Jérémie & Thibaut
These Doomed Isles $14.99 180 66% 5.4k $81k (exactly $80,946) Triplevision Games Limited
Anoxia Station $14.99 179 76% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Bonereaders

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.