Do I ship it?

Games › Colony Sim › Colony Sim + Mining

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mining Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Mining

Of 27 developers who shipped a Mining Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 61 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.4k, ×15 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $700k, ×1128 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 61 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 14.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 61 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Mining
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $191k → $300 → $88k → $32k → $4.1k → $50k (still earning) → $15k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Mining: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $3.6k (exactly $3,594)
Median $9.4k (exactly $9,352)
Top 25% $59k (exactly $59,380)
Top 5% $708k (exactly $708,466)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 73
Announced 61
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Mining
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, Mining; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 4,595 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.6k, median $9.4k, 1 in 4 over $59k, 1 in 20 over $700k.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.6k. 5 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 61 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Captain of Industry 2022 · EA · $12M Stationeers 2017 · EA · $9.0M CryoFall 2021 · $2.9M Hammerting 2021 · $1.3M The Last Starship 2026 · $973k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Captain of Industry · EA older $34.99 11,027 90% 331k $12M (exactly $11,575,042) MaFi Games
Stationeers · EA older $34.99 8,597 88% 258k $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) RocketWerkz
CryoFall older $19.99 4,905 78% 147k $2.9M (exactly $2,941,528) AtomicTorch Studio
Hammerting older $24.99 1,733 57% 52k $1.3M (exactly $1,299,230) Warpzone Studios
The Last Starship $19.99 1,623 75% 49k $973k (exactly $973,313) Introversion Software
Cattails: Wildwood Story older $19.99 1,479 97% 44k $887k (exactly $886,956) Falcon Development
Orebound · EA $24.99 945 77% 28k $708k (exactly $708,466) Emberforge
Odd Realm older $19.99 954 84% 29k $572k (exactly $572,114) Unknown Origin Games Inc
Winter · EA older $29.99 340 73% 10k $306k (exactly $305,898) Frostfall Realms Studios
Ark of Charon $24.99 389 75% 12k $292k (exactly $291,633) Angoo Inc., SUNSOFT
Hole Is Mine $7.99 741 90% 22k $178k (exactly $177,618) Incrementalist
Space Architect $9.99 294 73% 8.8k $88k (exactly $88,112) Albert Wiatr
Anoxia Station $14.99 179 76% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Bonereaders
Swarmdustry · EA $29.99 66 90% 2.0k $59k (exactly $59,380) Mitchy Studios
Surviving Mars: Pioneer $24.99 78 83% 2.3k $58k (exactly $58,477) Bolverk Games
Utopia Colony $16.99 99 63% 3.0k $50k (exactly $50,460) GridSky Studios
Wild West Miner Simulator $5.99 181 66% 5.4k $33k (exactly $32,526) Digital Melody

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.