Do I ship it?

Games › Colony Sim › Colony Sim + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Post-apocalyptic

Of 48 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 101 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $54k, ×85 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $7.6M, ×12257 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 101 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 85.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 101 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 48
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $373k → $2.9k → $2.3M → $41k → $73k → $91k → $50k (still earning) → $23k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 48
Bottom 30% $3.2k (exactly $3,238)
Median $54k (exactly $53,514)
Top 25% $677k (exactly $677,323)
Top 5% $7.7M (exactly $7,697,170)
Developers, 2 yr 48
Released games 108
Announced 101
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Management, Survival
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $31.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $31.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 100,431 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.3k, median $54k, 1 in 4 over $670k, 1 in 20 over $7.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.3k. 4 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 101 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced
  12. + Tactical RPGPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Frostpunk 2018 · $103M They Are Billions 2019 · $42M Timberborn 2026 · $40M Frostpunk 2 2024 · $28M IXION 2022 · $16M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Frostpunk older $29.99 114,376 92% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,904,087) 11 bit studios
They Are Billions older $29.99 46,223 85% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,586,833) Numantian Games
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
Frostpunk 2 $44.99 20,872 74% 626k $28M (exactly $28,170,938) 11 bit studios
IXION older $34.99 15,281 77% 458k $16M (exactly $16,040,466) Bulwark Studios
Infection Free Zone · EA older $24.99 16,568 80% 497k $12M (exactly $12,421,030) Jutsu Games
Space Haven $24.99 10,267 85% 308k $7.7M (exactly $7,697,170) Bugbyte Ltd.
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days · EA $24.99 9,049 89% 271k $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) PikPok
Endzone - A World Apart older $24.99 8,311 76% 249k $6.2M (exactly $6,230,757) Gentlymad Studios
The Crust $31.99 3,502 76% 105k $3.4M (exactly $3,360,869) VEOM Studio
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games
Survivalist: Invisible Strain $11.99 4,014 87% 120k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) Bob
ALL WILL FALL $29.99 1,262 76% 38k $1.1M (exactly $1,135,421) All Parts Connected
Endzone 2 $29.99 894 65% 27k $804k (exactly $804,332) Gentlymad Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.