Do I ship it?

Games › Colony Sim › Colony Sim + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Crafting

Of 101 developers who shipped a Crafting Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 311 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.4k, ×13 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×5150 the market median. Revenue is up 100% on the market; 311 games are announced against 56 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 311 announced, ×5.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 101
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $29k → $28k → $9.4k → $11k → $9.4k → $3.6k → $59k (still earning) → $16k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 101
Bottom 30% $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Median $8.4k (exactly $8,396)
Top 25% $144k (exactly $143,856)
Top 5% $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206)
Developers, 2 yr 101
Released games 255
Announced 311
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, Crafting; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Simulation, Building
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 81,014 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $8.4k, 1 in 4 over $140k, 1 in 20 over $3.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 6 in 10 of the 50 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 311 games are announced against 56 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Dwarf Fortress 2022 · $26M Kingdoms and Castles 2017 · $18M Soulmask 2026 · $17M Going Medieval 2026 · $15M Captain of Industry 2022 · EA · $12M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
Kingdoms and Castles older $19.99 30,311 93% 909k $18M (exactly $18,177,507) Lion Shield, LLC
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Captain of Industry · EA older $34.99 11,027 90% 331k $12M (exactly $11,575,042) MaFi Games
Stranded: Alien Dawn older $34.99 9,715 84% 291k $10M (exactly $10,197,836) Haemimont Games
Stationeers · EA older $34.99 8,597 88% 258k $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) RocketWerkz
Craft The World older $18.99 15,074 88% 452k $8.6M (exactly $8,587,658) Dekovir Entertainment, Sibear Games
ASKA · EA older $24.99 10,457 79% 314k $7.8M (exactly $7,839,613) Sand Sailor Studio
StarRupture · EA $19.99 12,333 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,100) Creepy Jar
Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days · EA $24.99 9,049 89% 271k $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) PikPok
Sengoku Dynasty $29.99 6,592 74% 198k $5.9M (exactly $5,930,822) Superkami
Mind Over Magic $24.99 4,314 86% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) Sparkypants
Pax Autocratica · EA $29.99 3,202 91% 96k $2.9M (exactly $2,880,839) Multiverse
Plan B: Terraform $15.99 3,526 91% 106k $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) Gaddy Games
Eden Crafters $19.99 2,507 85% 75k $1.5M (exactly $1,503,448) Osaris Games
Survivalist: Invisible Strain $11.99 4,014 87% 120k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) Bob

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.