Do I ship it?

GamesReal-Time with PauseReal-Time with Pause + Colony Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Colony Sim Real-Time with Pause game?

Real-Time with Pause + Colony Sim

Only 11 developers shipped a Colony Sim Real-Time with Pause game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Diplomacy is Not an Option, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $73k, ×49 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $27k; 1 in 20 cleared $9.8M, ×6549 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 21 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 48.8 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 21 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time with Pause + Colony Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.3M → $767k (still earning) → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real-Time with Pause + Colony Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $26k (exactly $26,258)
Median $73k (exactly $73,163)
Top 25% $1.1M (exactly $1,065,324)
Top 5% $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 34
Announced 21
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 900% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time with Pause
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Real-Time with Pause, Colony Sim
Price point
$19.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 18,177 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $27k, median $73k, 1 in 4 over $1.0M, 1 in 20 over $9.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $27k. 21 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with Pause with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CombatStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + ActionFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  4. + AdventurePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced
  5. + City BuilderPoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  7. + Choices MatterPoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $124k · 19 announced
  9. + MilitaryPoor odds11 devs · median $124k · 33 announced
  10. + MedievalPoor odds10 devs · median $87k · 22 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  12. + SurvivalPoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 27 announced

All 41 pairs on the Real-Time with Pause page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Frostpunk older $29.99 114,376 92% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,904,087) 11 bit studios
They Are Billions older $29.99 46,223 85% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,586,833) Numantian Games
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
The Universim older $29.99 8,465 79% 254k $7.6M (exactly $7,615,960) Crytivo
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games
New Cycle · EA older $29.99 2,597 78% 78k $2.3M (exactly $2,336,521) Core Engage
Industries of Titan older $29.99 1,553 61% 47k $1.4M (exactly $1,397,234) Brace Yourself Games
Judgment: Apocalypse Survival Simulation older $19.99 2,106 80% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,262,968) Suncrash
Another Brick in The Mall older $16.99 2,340 83% 70k $1.2M (exactly $1,192,698) The Quadsphere
Laysara: Summit Kingdom $24.99 1,421 80% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,065,324) Quite OK Games
Airborne Empire $29.99 852 86% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) The Wandering Band LLC
Here Comes The Swarm · EA $19.99 358 84% 11k $215k (exactly $214,693) CableHook Games
Repterra $19.99 122 90% 3.7k $73k (exactly $73,163) Chute Apps
Space Drilling Station · EA $19.99 63 90% 1.9k $38k (exactly $37,781) Ayota Games
Crownbound - Fantasy Kingdom Sim $11.99 73 47% 2.2k $26k (exactly $26,258) Bart Mamzer
Ranchbound · EA $17.99 44 50% 1.3k $24k (exactly $23,747) Eldersong Games
Deep Space Outpost $15.99 32 71% 960 $15k (exactly $15,350) Niris Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.