Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Colony Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Colony Sim RTS?

RTS + Colony Sim

Of 87 developers who shipped a Colony Sim RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 159 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $31k, ×21 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $6.9M, ×4645 the market median. Revenue is up 1585% on the market; 159 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 20.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 1585% on the market, 159 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Colony Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 87
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $96k → $28k → $67k → $719 → $13k → $425k → $73k (still earning) → $21k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Colony Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 87
Bottom 30% $1.9k (exactly $1,887)
Median $31k (exactly $31,184)
Top 25% $369k (exactly $368,877)
Top 5% $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280)
Developers, 2 yr 87
Released games 231
Announced 159
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1585% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Colony Sim; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, City Builder, Strategy
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 111,322 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.9k, median $31k, 1 in 4 over $360k, 1 in 20 over $6.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.9k. 6 in 10 of the 52 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 159 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds23 devs · median $22k · 48 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Frostpunk 2018 · $103M Manor Lords 2024 · EA · $92M Northgard: Definitive Edition 2018 · $57M They Are Billions 2019 · $42M Against the Storm 2023 · $30M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Frostpunk older $29.99 114,376 92% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,904,087) 11 bit studios
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
Northgard: Definitive Edition older $34.99 54,478 85% 1.6M $57M (exactly $57,185,557) Shiro Games
They Are Billions older $29.99 46,223 85% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,586,833) Numantian Games
Against the Storm older $29.99 33,271 94% 998k $30M (exactly $29,933,919) Eremite Games
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Foundation $34.99 23,037 86% 691k $24M (exactly $24,181,939) Polymorph Games
Banished older $19.99 37,895 90% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,725,632) Shining Rock Software LLC
Kingdoms and Castles older $19.99 30,311 93% 909k $18M (exactly $18,177,507) Lion Shield, LLC
IXION older $34.99 15,281 77% 458k $16M (exactly $16,040,466) Bulwark Studios
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition $19.99 10,627 92% 319k $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) Firefly Studios
Pioneers of Pagonia $34.99 4,794 81% 144k $5.0M (exactly $5,032,262) Envision Entertainment
Cataclismo $29.99 3,899 88% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) Digital Sun
The Crust $31.99 3,502 76% 105k $3.4M (exactly $3,360,869) VEOM Studio
Becastled $19.99 5,349 81% 160k $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795) Mana Potion Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.