Do I ship it?

Games › Colony Sim › Colony Sim + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Exploration

Of 143 developers who shipped an Exploration Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 365 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $18k, ×29 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×5143 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 365 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 29.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 365 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 143
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $9.7k → $18k → $18k → $32k → $48k → $27k (still earning) → $3.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 143
Bottom 30% $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Median $18k (exactly $18,438)
Top 25% $170k (exactly $170,315)
Top 5% $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708)
Developers, 2 yr 143
Released games 309
Announced 365
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.49

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, Exploration; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Building, Management
Price point
$12.49 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $12.49.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 75,432 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.7k, median $18k, 1 in 4 over $170k, 1 in 20 over $3.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 5 in 10 of the 54 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 365 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Oxygen Not Included 2019 · $101M SPORE™ 2008 · $40M Dwarf Fortress 2022 · $26M Soulmask 2026 · $17M IXION 2022 · $16M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Oxygen Not Included older $24.99 135,337 96% 4.1M $101M (exactly $101,462,149) Klei Entertainment
SPORE™ older $19.99 66,871 92% 2.0M $40M (exactly $40,102,539) Maxis™
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
IXION older $34.99 15,281 77% 458k $16M (exactly $16,040,466) Bulwark Studios
ASKA · EA older $24.99 10,457 79% 314k $7.8M (exactly $7,839,613) Sand Sailor Studio
Space Haven $24.99 10,267 85% 308k $7.7M (exactly $7,697,170) Bugbyte Ltd.
The Universim older $29.99 8,465 79% 254k $7.6M (exactly $7,615,960) Crytivo
StarRupture · EA $19.99 12,333 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,100) Creepy Jar
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Sengoku Dynasty $29.99 6,592 74% 198k $5.9M (exactly $5,930,822) Superkami
Railroads Online $29.99 5,410 75% 162k $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) Stefan Kelnberger
The Crust $31.99 3,502 76% 105k $3.4M (exactly $3,360,869) VEOM Studio
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games
Ratopia $22.00 4,639 87% 139k $3.1M (exactly $3,061,740) Cassel Games
Surviving Mars: Relaunched $39.99 2,202 55% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,641,739) Haemimont Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.