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Should I ship a PvP Colony Sim?
PvP + Colony Sim
Only 7 developers shipped a PvP Colony Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Soulmask, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×7.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $7.5k, ×5.0 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $16M, ×11078 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 39 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $180 (exactly $180) |
|---|---|
| Median | $7.5k (exactly $7,485) |
| Top 25% | $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) |
| Top 5% | $17M (exactly $16,594,966) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 7 |
| Released games | 37 |
| Announced | 39 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $10.00 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 150% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- PvP
- effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
- Colony Sim
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP, Colony Sim
- Price point
- $10.00 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 108,534 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $180. 39 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
Northgard: Definitive Edition 2018 · $57M 
Soulmask 2026 · $17M 
Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition 2025 · $6.4M 
Kingdoms Reborn 2020 · EA · $5.3M 
Offworld Trading Company 2016 · $3.2M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Northgard: Definitive Edition | older | $34.99 | 54,478 85% | 1.6M | $57M (exactly $57,185,557) | Shiro Games |
| | Soulmask | $29.99 | 18,445 76% | 553k | $17M (exactly $16,594,966) | CampFire Studio | |
| | Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition | $19.99 | 10,627 92% | 319k | $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) | Firefly Studios | |
| | Kingdoms Reborn | · EA older | $19.99 | 8,862 90% | 266k | $5.3M (exactly $5,314,541) | Earthshine |
| | Offworld Trading Company | older | $29.99 | 3,598 77% | 108k | $3.2M (exactly $3,237,121) | Mohawk Games |
 | CryoFall | older | $19.99 | 4,905 78% | 147k | $2.9M (exactly $2,941,528) | AtomicTorch Studio |
 | Frozenheim | older | $19.99 | 3,463 70% | 104k | $2.1M (exactly $2,076,761) | Paranoid Interactive |
 | Tower! Simulator 3 | older | $59.99 | 1,047 67% | 31k | $1.9M (exactly $1,884,286) | FeelThere |
 | The Settlers: New Allies | older | $39.99 | 1,175 49% | 35k | $1.4M (exactly $1,409,648) | Ubisoft Düsseldorf |
 | Screeps: World | older | $19.99 | 1,934 86% | 58k | $1.2M (exactly $1,159,820) | Screeps, LLC |
 | Outlive 25 | $11.99 | 204 93% | 6.1k | $73k (exactly $73,379) | Continuum Entertainment | |
 | Periphery Online | $4.99 | 50 72% | 1.5k | $7.5k (exactly $7,485) | Aleksandr Nagaev | |
 | Shades Of War | $5.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $180 (exactly $180) | Raven Knepp | |
 | Mavors | $0.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Guns, Gods, and Steel | |
 | Surviving Day! | $10.00 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | JJustis |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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