Do I ship it?

GamesColony SimColony Sim + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Arcade

Only 13 developers shipped an Arcade Colony Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Hole Is Mine, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×283 the market median. Revenue is up 214895% on the market; 19 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 214895% on the market, 19 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $90 → $958 → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Top 5% $178k (exactly $177,618)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 35
Announced 19
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 235% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, Arcade; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Idler, Incremental, Management
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $7.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $7.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 964 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $360, 1 in 4 over $1.7k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  3. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  4. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  7. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  8. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  9. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced
  12. + Tactical RPGPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hole Is Mine $7.99 741 90% 22k $178k (exactly $177,618) Incrementalist
Home Run High older $8.99 155 72% 4.7k $42k (exactly $41,804) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Simultree $6.99 145 86% 4.4k $30k (exactly $30,406) PIPAPOU
Idle Catfarmia older $7.65 63 74% 1.9k $14k (exactly $14,458) RainbowStudio
Steel Rain older $9.99 47 87% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) PolarityFlow, Adrian Zingg
The Wratch's Den older $5.99 61 78% 1.8k $11k (exactly $10,962) PUNKCAKE Delicieux
Army To Army older $24.99 9 55% 270 $6.7k (exactly $6,747) Piece Of Voxel
Click to Civ $3.99 42 78% 1.3k $5.0k (exactly $5,027) Phantom Realm
Fungal Colony Simulator older $2.99 24 66% 720 $2.2k (exactly $2,153) Skylor Beck
Asymptote $4.99 12 100% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Crazish Games
Lunokhod $4.99 8 87% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Lunokhod Labs
Mine It Down $3.99 8 75% 240 $958 (exactly $958) Topito Games
Click-A-Duck $2.99 4 75% 120 $359 (exactly $359) Altered Games
GLITCHED MATRIX Prototype Lab $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) GLITCHED MATRIX
Shades Of War $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Raven Knepp
Wild Harmony $2.99 2 0% 60 $179 (exactly $179) Blake Gocey

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.