Do I ship it?

GamesColony SimColony Sim + Wargame

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Wargame Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Wargame

Of 24 developers who shipped a Wargame Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 55 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $16k, ×25 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×234 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 55 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 25.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 55 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Wargame
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $659 → $41k → $13k → $119k → $7.5k (still earning) → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Wargame: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Median $16k (exactly $15,740)
Top 25% $54k (exactly $53,514)
Top 5% $147k (exactly $146,926)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 57
Announced 55
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, Wargame; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Resource Management, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 1,787 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.3k, median $16k, 1 in 4 over $53k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.3k. 7 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 55 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fantasy Map Simulator · EA older $7.99 4,190 89% 126k $1.0M (exactly $1,004,343) The Stranger
Primitive Society Simulator · EA older $19.99 647 83% 19k $388k (exactly $388,006) YSH BigDove
Buggos older $9.99 1,204 88% 36k $361k (exactly $360,839) Intrepid Marmot
Alien Marauder · EA older $19.99 323 60% 9.7k $194k (exactly $193,703) Vexan Studio
Kingdom's Deck $9.99 495 72% 15k $148k (exactly $148,352) Ivan Aco
Ninja Village older $8.99 546 93% 16k $147k (exactly $147,256) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Dawn Apart · EA $19.99 245 68% 7.4k $147k (exactly $146,926) Industrial Technology and Witchcraft
SeaCret 1 · EA $39.99 99 61% 3.0k $119k (exactly $118,770) Dalas
After Long Night $9.99 381 72% 11k $114k (exactly $114,186) 疯狗工作室
Quarantineer older $9.99 307 80% 9.2k $92k (exactly $92,008) Papaonn
Imperial Ambitions $19.99 101 81% 3.0k $61k (exactly $60,570) aoiti
Machinefall $14.99 119 82% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) by Jan Zizka
Sengoku Voxel Castle With Zundamon · EA $12.99 106 95% 3.2k $41k (exactly $41,308) KC Project
Oasis Mission: Colony Sim $14.99 91 56% 2.7k $41k (exactly $40,923) Lunar pug studio
Riftborne · EA $7.99 108 91% 3.2k $26k (exactly $25,888) Pitio Productions
Powerplay · EA $18.99 42 85% 1.3k $24k (exactly $23,927) Frantic

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.