Do I ship it?

GamesColony SimColony Sim + Mars

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mars Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Mars

Only 13 developers shipped a Mars Colony Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Surviving Mars: Relaunched, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $50k, ×80 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.6M, ×4207 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 31 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 80.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 31 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Mars
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $226k → $9.7k → $17k → $1.7M → $353k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Mars: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Median $50k (exactly $50,460)
Top 25% $353k (exactly $353,109)
Top 5% $2.6M (exactly $2,641,739)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 29
Announced 31
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $15.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Mars
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim
Price point
$15.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 7,986 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $50k, 1 in 4 over $350k, 1 in 20 over $2.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + Tactical RPGPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Per Aspera older $29.99 4,105 76% 123k $3.7M (exactly $3,693,268) Tlön Industries
Surviving Mars: Relaunched $39.99 2,202 55% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,641,739) Haemimont Games
Plan B: Terraform $15.99 3,526 91% 106k $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) Gaddy Games
Solargene $34.99 777 77% 23k $816k (exactly $815,617) Alexander Semenov
Calyx · EA $24.99 471 88% 14k $353k (exactly $353,109) Studio 568
Stellar Settlers: Space Base Builder $11.99 744 69% 22k $268k (exactly $267,617) Tinymice Entertainment
Farlanders older $14.99 510 89% 15k $229k (exactly $229,347) Andrii Bychkovskyi
Reshaping Mars older $9.99 753 84% 23k $226k (exactly $225,674) Tholus
Surviving Mars: Pioneer $24.99 78 83% 2.3k $58k (exactly $58,477) Bolverk Games
Utopia Colony $16.99 99 63% 3.0k $50k (exactly $50,460) GridSky Studios
Dissent on Mars $29.99 19 47% 570 $17k (exactly $17,094) Michael Hicks, Gonçalo Antunes
Terraforming Titans $5.00 58 94% 1.7k $8.7k (exactly $8,700) terraforming.titans
Asymptote $4.99 12 100% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Crazish Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.