Do I ship it?

GamesColony SimColony Sim + Political Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Political Sim Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Political Sim

Of 21 developers who shipped a Political Sim Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.4k, ×15 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2678 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 58 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 58 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Political Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $85k → $4.4k → $41k → $9.4k → $599 → $111k (still earning) → $3.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Political Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $598 (exactly $598)
Median $9.4k (exactly $9,444)
Top 25% $111k (exactly $111,488)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,681,920)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 49
Announced 58
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Political Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, Political Sim; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Base Building, Choices Matter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $32.00 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $32.00 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 24,400 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $9.4k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 58 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WorldBox - God Simulator · EA older $19.99 51,071 95% 1.5M $31M (exactly $30,627,279) Maxim Karpenko
Frostpunk 2 $44.99 20,872 74% 626k $28M (exactly $28,170,938) 11 bit studios
MEMORIAPOLIS $32.00 1,752 75% 53k $1.7M (exactly $1,681,920) 5PM Studio
Anno 1404 - History Edition older $14.99 3,454 82% 104k $1.6M (exactly $1,553,264) Ubisoft Mainz
Honey, I Joined a Cult older $25.99 1,380 73% 41k $1.1M (exactly $1,075,986) Sole Survivor Games
The Guild II Renaissance older $9.99 3,540 82% 106k $1.1M (exactly $1,060,938) Runeforge Game Studio
Fantasy Map Simulator · EA older $7.99 4,190 89% 126k $1.0M (exactly $1,004,343) The Stranger
Imagine Earth older $24.99 810 79% 24k $607k (exactly $607,257) Serious Bros.
Floodland older $19.99 921 54% 28k $552k (exactly $552,324) Vile Monarch
Deisim older $14.99 873 93% 26k $393k (exactly $392,588) Myron Games
Pompeii: The Legacy $19.99 266 80% 8.0k $160k (exactly $159,520) Siscia Games
Sinner Maker · EA $9.66 545 91% 16k $158k (exactly $157,941) Pantokrator
Astrobuilder $14.99 350 88% 11k $157k (exactly $157,395) wastudio
Pandora's Toybox $9.99 372 83% 11k $111k (exactly $111,488) BetaLab
Sengoku Voxel Castle With Zundamon · EA $12.99 106 95% 3.2k $41k (exactly $41,308) KC Project
Lunar Ascendant $14.99 86 44% 2.6k $39k (exactly $38,674) Darts Games
Dissent on Mars $29.99 19 47% 570 $17k (exactly $17,094) Michael Hicks, Gonçalo Antunes
The Diner at the End of the Galaxy · EA $9.99 32 59% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) General Interactive Co.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.